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SunSirs: MTBE Market Kept Stable Operation in the First Half of 2019, and Showed a "W" Trend in the Second Half of 2019

January 08 2020 18:17:46     SunSirs (Selena)

1  Price Trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the price of MTBE on December 31, 2019 was 5,383 RMB/ ton, 5.97% higher than 5,080 RMB/ ton at the beginning of 2019.

2  Market Analysis

The price trend of domestic MTBE market in 2019 was highly related to that of upstream gasoline market, and the price trend was basically the same.

The first half of the year: domestic MTBE kept stable operation from January to May. As of the end of May, the domestic MTBE market price only rose 0.72% to 5,116 RMB/ ton, while the gasoline price rose 1.79% in the same period. First of all, in terms of crude oil, the overall trade relationship between China and the United States showed a gradual easing trend. In terms of gasoline, gasoline procurement and replenishment operations were basically carried out on demand. Second, in the first half of the year, the MTBE unit operating rate changed little, and the market price went with the market, not affected by the market supply and demand relationship.

Second half of the year: since late May, the price trend of domestic MTBE market followed the change of gasoline market, showing a "W" trend as a whole. The market prices of gasoline and MTBE fell to the lowest level in the second half of the year in middle June, down 8.92% and 13.39% respectively, and rose to the highest level in the second half of the year in late September, up 8.33% and 30.57% respectively. By the end of 2019, both fell back to the level in the last half of May, up only 0.36% and 5.21% respectively. It can be seen that the price trend of domestic MTBE market was consistent with the change of gasoline market, but the change range of MTBE market price was larger than that of gasoline market. First of all, in May, Dalian Hengli 820,000 tons/ year MTBE plant was started. Because of its large output and low export price, the MTBE market was deeply impacted. During April and June, the refinery ushered in the centralized maintenance season. The contradiction between supply and demand in the MTBE market intensified, and the decline in the MTBE market was far greater than that in the gasoline market. Secondly, in September, compared with the gasoline market actively preparing for the peak demand season, MTBE market supply was insufficient, the number of export sales of major refineries was reduced. In September, Dalian Hengli MTBE has few export sales, and the import of MTBE was scarce, which led to the shortage of MTBE.

On the whole, the market price of MTBE in 2019 was closely related to the price trend of the gasoline market and deeply influenced by the supply side of MTBE. It showed its own trend, and the shock range was far greater than that of the gasoline market.

3  Market Forecast

According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of SunSirs, future trade disputes may enter into normalization, crude oil market demand will be restricted, and the price center of gasoline market will fall steadily in 2020. Therefore, in 2020, the price center of MTBE market will follow the price center of gasoline market and the fluctuation range will be further shrunk.


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