SunSirs: Energy, The Performance of Refined Oil Industry in 2019 was Remarkable, with Stability and Changes in 2020

In 2019, the performance of refined oil industry was remarkable. According to statistics, the crude oil import volume from January to November 2019 was 46.24 million tons, with a cumulative growth of 10.1%. With the crude oil import volume continuing to reach a new high in 2019, the domestic demand for crude oil and downstream oil products showed a moderate expansion trend. At the same time, there were many favorable policies, the value-added tax of refined oil was lowered again, and the transformation and upgrading of China's refining industry accelerated, the examination and approval of the retail operation qualification of refined oil products was decentralized, and the market activity of oil products increased. In general, the price of refined oil products in 2019 is higher than that in 2018.

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were 7 kinds of commodities in the price up and down list of refined oil industry in 2019, including 6 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the industry; the top 3 commodities with an increase rate was WTI crude oil (35.92%), Brent crude oil (26.69%) and diesel (15.05%). There were only 3 commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the decline was not obvious. The decline of fuel oil accounted for the first place, and the annual decline was only 3.02%.

Let's review the performance of crude oil and refined oil in 2019:

First of all, from the perspective of crude oil, the international crude oil market surged in 2019. In the context of Sino-U.S. trade war and the expected cooling of global economy, the "black swan" incident occurred frequently, from the macro Global Multi countries into the interest rate reduction channel, encountering currency crisis, to the Britain's Brexit, to the micro "OPEC+" production reduction twisted and turned, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained in suspense. From the bottleneck period of shale oil production and transportation in the United States to the frequent accidents of multiple oil refining facilities, many factors affected the oil market, and the oil price also fluctuated and twisted and turned. As a whole, in the first half of the year, WTI rose unilaterally, from about $45/ barrel at the beginning of the year to about $66/ barrel in the first ten days of April. Then, with the reduction of geopolitical risk factors and the expected cooling of crude oil demand caused by the upgrading of Sino US trade war, the oil price fell sharply. By the end of June, the WTI oil price fell to about $50/ barrel. In the second half of the year, the oil price continued to fluctuate widely. By the end of the year, Sino-U. In short, the overall trend of crude oil in 2019 was upward.

Second, in 2019, oil products also caught up with crude oil, showing an upward trend: in the first half of the year, domestic gasoline and diesel oil trends were stable and upward from January to May. As of the end of May, the domestic gasoline price rose 1.79% to 6,616 RMB/ ton, while the diesel price rose 12.82% to 6,237 RMB/ ton. In the first half of the year, the domestic refined oil market was stable and rising, and the price performance of diesel market was far better than that of gasoline market.

The second half of the year: since late May, the domestic refined oil market had fluctuated broadly, showing a "W" trend as a whole. The market price of gasoline fell to the lowest level in the second half of the year in mid-June, down 8.92%, and rose to the highest level in the second half of the year in late September, up 8.33%. At the end of the year, it fell back to the level in late May, up only 0.36%. In the second half of the year, gasoline market prices fluctuated broadly, with an amplitude of less than 9%. At the same time, the market price of diesel oil fell to the lowest level in the second half of the year in mid-June, with a drop of 2.54%. In late September, it rose to the highest level in the second half of the year, with a rise of 7.47%. At the end of the year, it fell back to the level in late May, with a rise of only 2.27%. In the second half of the year, gasoline market prices fluctuated broadly, with an amplitude of less than 7.5%. As a whole, the price trends of gasoline and diesel market were consistent, and the fluctuation range of diesel market was smaller than that of gasoline market.

Market Forecast

According to SunSirs analysts, China's economic growth is expected to slow down in 2020, with the risk of GDP growth exceeding 6. The demand for crude oil and downstream oil products is also likely to slow down. From the perspective of the external environment, whether the international trade environment can be improved, and whether the trade barriers prevailing against globalization can be broken, are the key factors restricting the growth of the demand of the whole oil industry; at the same time, the decline of automobile sales and the promotion of new energy vehicle sales also bring new challenges to the domestic oil market, but there is no need to be too pessimistic, because crude oil is still an irreplaceable energy source, with a huge system and demand. At the same time, the national infrastructure construction is expected to speed up in 2020, which will stimulate the demand of the oil market. In general, the refined oil industry will change in the next year or in a stable way, and oil products will continue to maintain stable growth, but there are variables. It is expected that the growth rate will continue to slow down, and the amplitude of price may increase with the increase of oil price uncertainty in 2020.

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