SunSirs: Domestic Fuel Oil 180CST Price Stayed Stable (9.2-9.6)

1. Price Data:

As of September 6, the average domestic fuel oil distribution price was 4,520 RMB/ton, which was stable this week. The fuel oil commodity index on September 6 was 91.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.02% from the cyclical peak of 115.91 points (2018-10-17), and up 98.65% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

2. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: Domestic fuel oil trade has increased this week. The actual transaction price is about 4,500 RMB/ton.

Industry chain: According to SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $55.10 per barrel at the beginning of the week, and $56.30 per barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase and decrease of 2.18%; Brent crude oil was $60.43 per barrel at the beginning of the week and $60.95 per barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase and decrease of 0.86%. Tension of international trade relations, U.S. crude oil production and stock boost affect the trend of international crude oil. On Wednesday, September 4, Fushun Mining Shale Oil won a weighted average price of 3,340 RMB/ton, winning a bid of 0.9 million tons, bidding 1.3 million tons, volume of 0.9 million tons; the bidding base price was 3,206 RMB/ton; the winning bid was 3,336-3,346 RMB/ton, the next bidding time is September 11.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 35th week (9.2-9.6) of 2019, there were 9 kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, one of which rose more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were dimethyl ether (5.56%), methanol (4.81%) and MTBE (4.43%). There were five kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio. The first three products falling were coke (-3.74%), coking coal (-1.36%) and liquefied gas (-0.63%). This week's average rise and fall was 1.05%.

3. Market Forecast

SunSirs’ energy analysts believe that this week's rise in international crude oil is better than that in the fuel oil market and shale oil prices are rising, but the overall market for ship fuel is depressed, downstream demand is weak and prices remain stable. Fuel oil market prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, or around 4,500 RMB/ton.

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