SunSirs: Macroeconomic Turns Better, Driving Force of Zinc Price Rise Increases

1. Price trend

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the zinc market was adjusted in December, and the zinc price fell slightly. As of December 31, the spot price of zinc was 18,353.33RMB/ton, down 0.31% compared with 18,466.67RMB/ton on December 1, and down 16.82% compared with the same period last year.

2. Market trend analysis

China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index

According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics, in December 2019, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 50.2%, which was the same as that of the previous month. PMI was above the boom and bust line for two consecutive months. The manufacturing industry continued its expansion trend last month, with a steady growth. As a major non-ferrous metal product, zinc demand is expected to pick up and rise, which is good for zinc price in the future.

Domestic zinc production

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the domestic zinc production in 2019 increased steadily year on year, and the zinc production in November increased by 13.1% year on year. In 2019, the output of zinc rose, but the demand fell, and the overall zinc market showed oversupply. The sharp increase of zinc production is bad for the recovery of zinc price in the future.

3. Future prospects

Analysts of SunSirs believe that in December, the domestic macroeconomic environment maintained a warming trend, and the demand for zinc ingots increased; but at the same time, the domestic zinc production rose sharply, which had a negative impact on the zinc price. After the zinc market oversupply has improved to some extent, but due to the large stock of zinc ingots in the market, the supply of zinc market is sufficient, and the power of zinc price rise is insufficient. It is expected that zinc price will fluctuate and maintain stability in the future, but with the improvement of macro-economic environment, the power of zinc price increase will increase.

Related lwasted companies: Nonfemet(000060), CHIHONG Zn&Ge(600497).

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