SunSirs: Chinese Magnesium Ingot Price Plummeted by 16.83% in 2019

In 2019, the market of magnesium ingot was weak, and the market price was greatly reduced. According to the data of SunSirs, as of December 31, the average market price of magnesium ingot (9,990) was 14,166.67RMB/kg, down 16.83% from the average price of 17,033.33RMB/kg at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2019).

The market trend of magnesium ingots in 2019 is roughly divided into two stages. From the beginning of the year to the end of May, the price of magnesium ingots fluctuates at a high level within the range of 16,600-17,500RMB/kg; from the beginning of June to the first ten days of July, the price of magnesium ingots is monotonous downward, and the market is weak; from the middle of July to the last ten days of August, the price of magnesium ingots fluctuates. Since the beginning of September, the price of magnesium ingots has entered a downward range again. In the last ten days of December, the price of magnesium ingots has risen slightly.

Monthly average price of domestic magnesium ingot Market from January to December 2019 is as follows (RMB/ton):

Production recovery supply and demand advantage no longer exists in 2018

According to the data of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, from January to October, China's Communist original magnesium output was 747,700 tons, and the output in the same period of 2018 was 570,200 tons, up 21.7% year on year. Among them, the cumulative production in Shaanxi is 421,000 tons, up 18.9% year on year; the cumulative production in Shanxi is 99,100 tons, up 23.27% year on year; the cumulative production in Ningxia is 41900 tons, down 30.06% year on year.

Meanwhile, the data of the same period in 2018 shows that the main production areas have significantly reduced their production compared with that in 2017, among which Ningxia has halved year-on-year production, Shanxi has decreased 33.77% year-on-year, and the total domestic production has decreased 22.38% year-on-year.

Although the export volume increases, the domestic net increase stock is larger

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, from January to October, China exported 376,000 tons of various magnesium products, a year-on-year increase of 16.08% and a cumulative amount of 967 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%.

Among them, the export of magnesium ingots totaled 201,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.53%; the export of magnesium alloys totaled 91,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%; the export of magnesium powder totaled 71,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.84%.

From January to October 2018, China exported 323,900 tons of various magnesium products, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% and a cumulative amount of $805 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.33%. Among them, the total export of magnesium ingot is 163,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.22%; the total export of magnesium alloy is 8,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.94%; the total export of magnesium powder is 63,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.99%.

From January to October 2019, the increase in domestic production was 371,700 tons, the increase in export was 52,100 tons, and the net increase in domestic stock was 319,600 tons.

Future prospects in 2020

The price of magnesium has fallen to the cost line of the factory. Recently, the price of magnesium ingot has bottomed out and rebounded. The trading volume has increased and the market has slightly changed. Looking forward to 2020, with the improvement of downstream demand and the release of domestic mainstream manufacturers' inventory, magnesium price is expected to return to 14,500-15,000RMB/ton shock operation.

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