SunSirs: Good Trend of Methanol Market (9.2-9.6)

1. Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market is going up this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 1,994 RMB/ton, and at the end of the week it was 2,090 RMB/ton, with a rise of 4.81%, a rise of 0.19% annually and a decrease of 33.04% year on year.

2. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic methanol market is going up this week. Driven by the rise in futures prices, the trading atmosphere in the Mainland is good and prices are pushing up. This week, methanol price in the main producing areas increases 90-130 RMB/ton, followed by other places such as North China and Shandong. Port shocks and the price has risen about 100 RMB/ton this week. The total inventory of ports in eastern and southern China was 23.613 million tons, an increase of 93.7 million tons over the same period last week, which maintained an increasing trend. Note: Sample inventory data in Nanjing area have been increased since August. In methanol to olefins, Ningbo Fude and Inner Mongolia Jiutai MTO units have resumed normal production.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: This week, the formaldehyde market is up narrowly. Influenced by the upstream methanol market, some formaldehyde enterprises in Henan and Shandong markets raised their offer, while other regions temporarily stabilized. At present, the downstream construction time varies from place to place. The market demand in the south is better than that in the north. On the whole, the demand is general and the support for the formaldehyde market is limited.

Acetic acid: This week the domestic acetic acid Market regionally callback. After the previous period of continuous rise, the offer price of some regions is on the high side, and the market price difference is widening. With the supply of goods increasing, the offer of suppliers in Northwest China has taken the lead in declining continuously, falling to the mainstream negotiation area in North China and then holding a wait-and-see period. Although all parties in the market are obviously short-sighted, the plant in East China has not been restored yet, and the mainstream of acetic acid market is strong. Since mid-week, Henan Shunda has fallen three days in a row, aggravating market hollowness, and East China parking facilities have been restored, some traders have high supply prices, for the latter period of sustained bearish, high acetic acid Market shocks, market stage vulnerability is obvious.

Dimethyl ether: This week, domestic dimethyl ether market turnover prices fell first and then rose. At present, the overall start-up rate of domestic enterprises is about 21.78%, which is 2.41% higher than that of last week and 12.44% higher than that of last week. Overall, the domestic supply of goods is excessive as a whole, while the downstream market demand is limited, and prices continue to decline, which aggravates the mood of market buy-up and not buy-down, leading traders and end-users to prudent procurement, trading on demand procurement-based. This week, raw material methanol prices continued to rise due to the impact of peripheral and futures. This week, the average price of raw material methanol reached 2,000 RMB/ton.

3. Market Forecast

SunSirs’ view: On the positive side, the market price of methanol is relatively low, and most of the market price is near the production line of methanol. On the methanol to olefin plant, Ningbo Fude and Inner Mongolia Jiutai MTO units resumed full-load production. This week, shipments were smooth in the main production areas of Northwest China, and most factories in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi were closed down.

On the negative side, the arrival of methanol at the port was concentrated, with an estimated arrival of more than 1 million tons in August and 900,000 to 950,000 tons in September. In the orderly construction of new methanol units in China, 700,000 tons in Yankuang Yulin are planned to be put into operation in October; Rongxin of Inner Mongolia is expected to put into operation in September; Yingde of Jingmen in late August. Near National Day, environmental protection supervision in North China has been strengthened, and formaldehyde trade unions in North China are expected to decline in September.

Market participants have great divergence on the trend of the latter period; in the sensitive period before National Day, the delivery of methanol MA1909 is approaching, market uncertainty is increasing, and policy, financial and capital flows will guide the trend of methanol in a certain period of time; next week, the methanol market is expected to show regional market, and the stable trend of rise and fall will be reflected; However, the basic situation of methanol has not improved, and environmental protection and safety monitoring efforts have not decreased. SunSirs’ Methanol analysts predict that the trend of methanol near National Day is likely to show a weak oscillation.

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