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SunSirs: Review of Polyamide Market in 2019

December 26 2019 09:41:46     SunSirs (Linda)

In 2019, the domestic polymaide production capacity expanded, the domestic supply and demand was unbalanced, the terminal demand was weak, the raw material end was put into production increased, the domestic production cost was reduced, and the price of polymaide filament fell sharply.

According to the price statistics of SunSirs, as of December 24, products prices in Jiangsu Province are below (Unit: RMB/ton)

Product

January 1

December 24

Change

Rate

Cyclohexanone

8,000

7,266

-734

-9.17%

Caprolactam

12,650

10,933

-1,717

-13.57%

PA6(Medium-viscosity:2.75-2.85)

16,400

12,733

-3,667

-22.36%

Polyamide FDY(40D/12F)

22,150

18,000

-4,150

-18.74%

Polyamide DTY(70D/24F)

21,133

16,766

-4,367

-20.66%

Polyamide POY(86D/24F)

18,400

14,280

-4,120

-22.39%

From January to the middle of April, at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, due to the shutdown and maintenance of some plants in the upstream of polymaide, the price of raw materials rose, but the order of polymaide was not good, the production and sales were basically flat, and there was still pressure on the price rise. With the consumption of raw materials, the price of polymaide rose slowly. Some manufacturers are not optimistic about the future market of this year. They have emptied the inventory before the falling period. Just need to purchase, buy as you use becomes the constant theme.

From April to June, the trend of crude oil affected the polymaide industry chain. Trump suppressed the oil price and claimed that it was too high. From the end of April to the middle of June, crude oil fell sharply, and all links of polymaide industry chain were shot. At this time, the cost support is insufficient. At this time, the order is in vain, and the decline of polymaide is hard to stop.

In July, the OPEC meeting provided a fulcrum for the rise of crude oil prices. The trend of crude oil fluctuated and showed an overall upward trend. Raw materials take advantage of the trend, polymaide also ushered in a short period of rise. In October, the trade between China and the United States may be further strained, aggravating market concerns. In addition, the sharp rise and fall of crude oil in mid September further hit production. Gradually into the end of the year, the pressure of ex warehouse is increasing, and the price of raw materials and polymaide is looking for orders.

In 2019, the overall performance of the textile industry declined, and the textile prices generally fell. According to statistics of business agency, the price of bulk textile raw materials fell by 7.09% - 28.77% this year, and polymaide POY fell by 22.39%, ranking second.

According to relevant data statistics, the domestic polymaide fiber output in 2019 (January October) is 3,236,200 tons, an increase of 14.4% year on year. From January to July, China's polymaide fiber import volume was 65.36 kilotons, down 26.07% year-on-year, and the export volume was 137.04 kilotons, down 4.8% year-on-year. Both import and export volume fell. In the data of the first half of the year, Taiwan Province and Vietnam ranked the top two in polymaide import, and the United States ranked sixth. In the Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, the impact of tariffs on polymaide fiber exports was small. However, the terminal orders have shrunk. With the increase of production capacity, polymaide sales market is facing challenges.

From the price trend chart of PA6 and polymaide, the price trend is basically the same, and the overall downward adjustment. As can be seen from the figure, the two price tracks deviated greatly from each other in September October. Polymaide prices rose slightly in the middle of September, and then run smoothly. In the middle of October, the decline mode started. The price of PA6 rose earlier than that of polymaide, and the increase was larger. In September, there was a sudden news that Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was attacked and its output was damaged in a short period of time, resulting in a sharp rise in crude oil prices and chemical products. The cost of PA6 raw materials increased and the price increased. Polymaide orders did not respond to the short stage play, filament prices are relatively stable.

From the price trend chart of cyclohexanone and polymaide POY, the trend of cyclohexanone is twists and turns, and the correlation between cyclohexanone and polymaide is small. The trend of crude oil price is the impact on the production cost of cyclohexanone. The upstream production capacity of polymaide has increased, and the supply is sufficient. The downstream orders have general repercussions. Manufacturers are cautious to wait and see, and there are more opportunities to purchase raw materials. On the other hand, the increase of polymaide production capacity, limited terminal consumption and oversupply lead to passive sales market.

According to SunSirsanalysts, the price of polymaide in 2019 is going down. On the one hand, the sharp drop of crude oil price has reduced the production cost of chemical products and lost the cost support of polymaide. On the other hand, the world trade pattern has been disrupted and restructured, and the contradiction between the increase of domestic polymaide production capacity and the consumption capacity of downstream non matching sets has emerged. In contrast, domestic capacity upgrading of industrial chain can reduce production costs, make polymaide industry more mature, and improve the ability to resist external shocks. At the end of the year, the factory returned the inventory funds and polymaide operated at a low level. The good development of Sino-U.S. trade relations makes the market have expectations. It is expected that the price of polymaide will recover from 2020.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

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