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SunSirs: Crude Oil Falls to the Lowest in the Year, and the Decline of Gasoline and Diesel oil is Hard to Change in China
December 09 2022 09:49:12SunSirs(Selena)

The decline of domestic gasoline and diesel prices is hard to change. As of July 7, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7,769.4 RMB/ton, a half month decline of 4.37%; The domestic price of 0# diesel oil was 8,268.2 RMB/ton, with a half month drop of 5.01%. The price of crude oil dropped to the lowest level in the year. With the impact of the contradiction between supply and demand, the decline in the refined oil market is hard to change.

On the cost side, the international crude oil price fell to the lowest level in the year. As of December 7, the settlement price of the main contract of the WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 72.01 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 77.17 dollars/barrel. Due to the performance of some US economic data exceeding expectations, the possibility of the Federal Reserve's radical interest rate hike still exists, which suppresses the benefits of OPEC+ production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The unexpected growth of the US ISM non manufacturing index in November, released on Monday, reflects that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve's transition from "dove" to "eagle", which may disappoint the Federal Reserve's previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path, which affected the crude oil market to decline significantly. The overall global economy is weak, the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and the economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the price of crude oil fell sharply, and the domestic oil product market was affected by the decline.

Supply side: In the near future, the operating rate of domestic main refineries has maintained, and the supply side is loose. The main refineries are relatively abundant in resource supply. The pressure on refinery shipments remains, and the gasoline price continues to fall. The average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units in refineries in Shandong Province remained about 66%, the manufacturer's inventory remained unchanged, and the supply of gasoline and diesel was loose. Therefore, the operators' intention to enter the market was reduced, and the market buying and selling atmosphere was light.

Demand side: Although the policy of epidemic prevention and control has been relaxed and boosted, the epidemic situation in some areas is still severe, the travel of residents has not improved, the demand for gasoline is poor, and the price of gasoline continues to decline. In terms of diesel, the temperature in the north has dropped, the commencement of outdoor infrastructure projects, factories and mining enterprises has been frustrated, logistics and transportation industries have been blocked, and the export volume has declined. In October, the diesel export volume was 1.06 million tons, down 39% month on month. The demand for diesel began to weaken, and the price of diesel has declined.

SunSirs oil product analyst from SunSirs, believes that the current international oil market is still in the process of supply and demand game, and it can be said that there is "resistance on the top" and "support on the bottom". In particular, the supply side is disturbed by the OPEC+ policy adjustment at any time, as well as the chain reaction caused by the European and American oil export sanctions against Russia, so the supply risk and variables increase. Demand is still concentrated in the expectation of economic recession, which is still the main factor to depress oil prices. In terms of domestic supply, the overall operating rate of main refineries and local refineries has not changed much, and the output of gasoline and diesel is relatively stable. The domestic epidemic prevention policy is relaxed, the public travel is still cautious, the market demand recovery is slow, and the gasoline market is still under pressure. As the weather turns cold, the operating rate of large industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries declines. The main business units actively catch up with the annual progress within a month, and do not rule out the possibility of limited time low price promotion. The diesel market price will still decline in the later period in China.


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