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SunSirs: Weak and Stable Operation of Soda Ash Market Under Supply Pressure
December 12 2019 10:30:57SunSirs(John)

Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the average ex-factory price of light soda ash in East China was 1,560.00 RMB/ton on the 11th, a month-on-month decrease of 11.70%. The light soda ash commodity index on December 10 was 80.00, which was the same as the previous day. It was 32.12% lower than the highest point of the cycle at 117.86 points (2017-11-21) and 26.68% higher than the lowest point of November 18, 2015 at 63.15 points. . (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)


Analysis review        

The domestic soda ash market is weak and stable, and market trading is light. At present, the operating load of soda ash manufacturers is more than 90%, the downstream inventory is sufficient, the demand vitality is limited, the pressure of soda ash supply is obvious, the market confidence is frustrated, the trading is light, and the enterprise may avoid excessive inventory risks through active maintenance. In December, there were three alkali plants that reduced production or stopped production. In the later period, there were maintenance plans for 1.1 million tons of Hubei Shuanghuan and 600,000 tons of Xindu Chemical. Shandong Haihua plans to continue to reduce production. Even if some manufacturers stop production and reduce production, from the perspective of supply, it is still an utterly inadequate measure, and the operating rate remains high. Alkali plant inventory is slowly increasing, and the oversupply pattern is unlikely to change in the short term.

On the demand side, downstream consumption is about to turn into a seasonal off-season, and soda ash prices are lacking momentum. On the other hand, oversupply of soda ash has become a reality. There is sufficient inventory in downstream glass factories, demand and trading are flat, and glass industry production lines are cold-repaired. The demand side does not support the price rise of soda ash.


Market outlook

Soda ash analysts of SunSirs believes that in the downstream, high profits stimulate glass companies' production enthusiasm, heavy alkali demand is expected to improve. Under the pattern of oversupply, soda ash is difficult to take off the downward channel in the short term, but limited by cost and profit, the downward space is limited. It is expected that the market situation of soda ash will be weak and stable, depending on the downstream market demand.


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