Crude oil: (Ukraine is ready to promise not to join NATO, and the high oil price drops)
In an interview with Ukrainian media yesterday, the president of Ukraine said that he was ready to discuss and make a commitment that Ukraine would not seek to join NATO in exchange for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Russian troops and Ukraine's security. Yesterday's high oil prices fell. API data in the early morning showed that crude oil inventory decreased by 4.3 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 626000 barrels and distillate oil inventory increased by 826000 barrels. Short term oil prices are still highly volatile and volatile. According to Trafigura, the market has lost 2-2.5 million barrels/day of Russian crude oil and refined oil, and Latin America and Africa are particularly difficult to bear the tight situation of diesel market. Continue to pay attention to the progress of the Russian Ukrainian incident and sanctions.
Asphalt: (light demand, pay attention to the change of crude oil price)
On Monday, the price of Sinopec Shandong remained stable, and the price in the South was reduced by 50-150RMB/ton. In Shandong, Qilu Petrochemical switched to coking materials, while other refineries maintained normal production. The loading of sub refineries in the area was limited, the downstream demand was weak, and the overall shipment was general; In East China, the supply is at a low level, with more rainy weather and the need for epidemic prevention and control. The transaction has been cold in recent days. Disk prices still need to focus on changes in capital and cost side crude oil prices.
Fuel oil: (the high oil price drops, and the uncertainty still exists)
FU05 contract closed 3996 yuan, up 27RMB/ton, lu06 closed 5094 yuan, down 55 RMB/ton. Singapore's high sulfur discount rose slightly to US $7.15, the low sulfur discount remained at about US $24.5, the price difference between low and high sulfur narrowed slightly to US $233, and the price difference between MgO and vlsfo remained at about US $217. Conflicts in Eastern Europe have been repeated, Ukraine is ready to discuss not joining NATO in exchange for fire, and international oil prices plunged and fell. In terms of fuel itself, the supply side pays attention to whether Russia's future exports will actually decline (crude oil, secondary raw materials and refined oil), as well as the release time of Iran Venezuela crude oil; On the demand side, in terms of shipping, containers, dry bulk cargo and oil tankers weakened slightly, but there are still some sanctions; In terms of power generation, the cost performance of alternative LNG is still, and attention is paid to the switching between winter and summer; In terms of refineries, attention is paid to the follow-up and fuel cost performance in Russia, and the purchase of straight run fuel in some regions may increase. Gasoline and diesel support low sulfur: gasoline and diesel cracking and natural gas prices remain relatively high after falling. Raw material diversion and hydrogenation costs indirectly support low sulfur fuel, and low sulfur elasticity is relatively high. Demand for straight run fuel oil and power generation or support of high sulfur: Europe and the United States seek Russian oil substitutes, and the cost performance of straight run fuel substitutes is improved, resulting in increased demand, but mainly due to the change of trade flow; As the temperature rises, the demand for power generation in South Asia increases. Crude oil fluctuates greatly, and the geopolitical premium still exists. When to return to the fundamental logic remains to be seen.
If the Russian Ukrainian negotiations and the Iranian nuclear agreement have not been implemented, if they are bad, the bottom of the second quarter or the current situation will occur when the supply side has not rebounded significantly, the inventory of crude oil and refined oil is low, the difference between steam and diesel in the outer market and the natural gas is still relatively high; At present, liquidity is still a big problem in maintaining the idea of wide range shock.
PTA: (crude oil support, demand suppression)
On March 22, the PTA spot market was generally popular, mainly through trade negotiations, and some polyester factories replenished goods, with a strong basis. In March, the main source of goods was traded at 05 + 15, and some were traded at 05 + 10. This week, the warehouse receipt was traded at 05 + 10, the transaction price was 6050-6190, and the basis difference of the main port's main source of goods was 05 + 15. In terms of devices, there was no significant change yesterday. Crude oil rose, with CFR Taiwan PX closing at US $1199/ton and PTA processing fee of 319RMB/ton. PTA supply continued to shrink, but the terminal demand continued to be weak, which exacerbated the current situation of weak demand under the influence of the epidemic. However, at present, the negative demand feedback has not been transmitted to the polyester link, the rigid demand for PTA can still be maintained, PTA continued the trend of going to the warehouse, and paid attention to the construction of large polyester mills in the later stage.
Staple fiber: (follow the raw material)
On March 22, the spot transaction focus of staple fiber increased by 50-100RMB/ton. However, due to the weak downstream demand affected by the epidemic, the cotton mill's willingness to continue to catch up was insufficient, and the transaction was still light, with an average production and sales of around 30%. The current basis is maintained. The source of goods of a large factory in Jiangyin is near 05 Ping Shui, and the source of goods of Huahong is 05-70 ~ - 50RMB/ton. There is no major change in the device. Short fiber supply and demand are both weak, profits are low and volatile, capital attention is low, there is a lack of independent market, and the trend mainly follows raw materials.
Methanol: (relative balance between supply and demand)
The spot price in Jiangsu rose on the previous trading day. Jiangsu spot discount main futures. From March to April, the upstream maintenance devices in the mainland will increase, and the output is expected to be limited. The import volume in the first quarter is expected to be limited, and there is room for recovery in the second quarter. The demand for olefins was low year-on-year and improved month on month. Traditional downstream demand is stronger. Recently, the port inventory has increased slightly month on month, with a year-on-year low. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, oil prices fluctuate greatly, and operation suggestions are to wait and see.
Urea: (short-term supply decline)
The spot price of urea in Shandong increased on the previous trading day. The average daily output of urea in the last week was 160600 tons, with a month on month increase of 200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 600 tons. The impact of environmental protection in Shanxi Province started, and the short-term output is expected to fall. Domestically, agricultural demand has entered the peak season. Affected by the legal inspection policy, exports will continue to be restricted. Recently, the inventory of enterprises decreased month on month and remained flat year on year. Short term supply falls, demand differentiation, operation suggestions wait and see.
MEG: (weak oscillation)
On March 22, Meg's price focus was weak and downward, and the market was weak. At present, the spot basis is around 70-80RMB/ton of 05 contract discount, 5115-5125RMB/ton is negotiated, and several orders are 5120-5180RMB/ton. In terms of devices, a 830000 T / a MEG device in the United States was restarted this week. The device had been shut down for maintenance in mid January. The overall profit of ethylene glycol is low, the underestimated value remains unchanged, which has been transmitted to the contraction of supply and the shortage of imports, but the terminal demand continues to be weak, which intensifies the weak demand under the influence of the epidemic. However, at present, the negative demand feedback has not been transmitted to the polyester link, and the rigid demand for ethylene glycol can still be maintained. At present, the accumulation speed of ethylene glycol port has slowed down significantly, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced. In the later stage, we will pay attention to the construction of large polyester factories.
LPG: (weak supply and demand, mainly external support)
The night trading PG05 contract closed at 6106 yuan, down 77 yuan / ton. The spot price in South China rose by 50 yuan to 6850-6880 yuan, the discount price in Shandong rose by 280 yuan to 6910RMB/ton, and the discount price in East China rose by 50 yuan to 6650 yuan. The negotiation conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been repeated, and Ukraine is ready to discuss not joining NATO in exchange for fire. The international oil price plunged during the session, with the external CP04 falling $2.18 to $891.06/ton and FEI04 rising $1.82 to $879.06/ton. The start-up of refineries is down, the supply of domestic gas is expected to decline, and the supply of terminals is expected to increase; Due to epidemic factors, the demand in some areas has decreased, and the circulation of goods is limited, so it is difficult to improve the construction of chemical industry. The overall supply and demand of PG is weak. However, the external crude oil, natural gas and other related energy still have a certain support for PG, and the replacement of naphtha and natural gas still has a certain cost performance. If PG makes a significant correction and the spot and external market are significantly discounted, it can still be considered to test more PG in light warehouse.
LLDP: (weak fundamentals but strong cost support)
Spot: the spot price of LLDPE is 8890RMB/ton. Upstream: high volatility of crude oil price; Large petrochemical enterprises reduced the load of some cracking and polyolefin production units, and the overall load of PE continued to decline, but the load of standard products remained at a normal level; The import window is closed, and it is expected that the import volume of external disk will continue to maintain a low level; The LD unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company was successfully started up. Downstream: agricultural film is in the peak demand season, but the order follow-up is weak; Manufacturers in most downstream industries maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and their willingness to pick up goods is weak; Due to the epidemic situation, the transportation in some areas is limited and the terminal demand is weakened; The export window is open, but the export volume is small. Inventory: Petrochemical inventory 99, - 3. At present, petrochemical inventory is under pressure; Port inventory accumulation. Industrial chain profit: the profit of upstream oil system is at a low level, and the cost is still supported; The import windows of the three varieties have been closed; Downstream profits are normal. Price difference: 05 contract basis - 100RMB/ton; HD is weak; LD liter LL. The fundamentals are weak, but the cost support is strong. It is expected that the PE price range will fluctuate. Pay attention to the fluctuation of crude oil price and the operation of upstream units.
PP: (weak fundamentals but strong cost support)
Spot: wire drawing spot 8830RMB/ton. Upstream: the price of crude oil fluctuates at a high level, and the price level of propane is high; Large petrochemical enterprises reduced the load of some cracking and polyolefin production units, and the overall load of PP decreased, but the load of standard products was normal; Zhenhai Refining and chemical has produced granular materials, Zhejiang Petrochemical has successfully started up, and the new unit of Huating coal industry is planned to start up at the end of March. Downstream: the order follow-up of most industries in the downstream of PP is mediocre, and the downstream is not willing to take delivery; Due to the epidemic, the transportation in some areas is limited and the terminal demand is weakened. Inventory: Petrochemical inventory 99, - 3, petrochemical inventory under pressure. Industrial chain profit: the theoretical profit level of most upstream production modes is low, and the cost is still supported; The exit window opens; BOPP profit is normal. Price difference: 05 contract basis - 50RMB/ton; The copolymerization price is weak; The price difference of grain powder is normal. The fundamentals are weak, but the cost support is strong. The price range is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the operation of upstream units and the fluctuation of crude oil price.
PVC: (the cost support is improved, and the demand may increase significantly after the end of the epidemic)
On the 22nd, the spot price of calcium carbide PVC in East China was 9040 yuan, up 25 yuan, the active contract was 9045 yuan, and the basis was - 5 yuan. The operating rate of PVC has increased slightly. The recent rectification of coal production safety has led to a slight rebound in the price of calcium carbide, the profit of PVC has fallen from a high level, and the supply of calcium carbide has increased slightly. It is expected that the recent PVC operation can remain stable. The downstream has basically resumed work, but the growth of terminal demand orders is slow, and some enterprises have stopped work due to the epidemic. India's anti-dumping policy has expired, the recent rise in oil prices has pushed up foreign costs, and PVC exports have price advantages. This week, the inventory began to turn from rising to falling, and the time of going to the warehouse this year was earlier than the same period in previous years. In terms of supply, PVC starts stably and has sufficient supply; Downstream resumption of work boosts procurement, but the terminal demand is general; The export demand is good, the inventory has been transferred to stock out, and the inventory time point is earlier. The fundamentals are slightly more, the cost support is improved, and the price has a certain upward momentum. Pay attention to the significant increase in demand that may occur after the end of the epidemic.
Styrene: (the fundamentals change from more to neutral, and the price follows the support of crude oil and cost)
On the 22nd, the spot price of styrene in East China was 9700 yuan, up 85 yuan, the active contract was 9649 yuan, and the basis was 51 yuan. The operating rate of styrene has rebounded, and the recent unit maintenance has increased, with a large gap between the operating rate and the level in the same period of previous years. According to the maintenance plan, the operating rate will decline slightly again in late March and remain low. The comprehensive operating rate of styrene downstream has a large decline, which is mainly affected by the epidemic situation. The operation of EPS and PS has decreased, the operation of EPS has decreased greatly, and the operation of ABS has decreased mainly due to the technical adjustment of increased production capacity. The time point of inventory removal is early, but the recent epidemic has affected the downstream demand, resulting in the inventory stabilizing at the current level. The start-up of styrene is significantly lower than that in the same period of previous years, but due to the increase of production capacity, the supply is generally sufficient; The demand has decreased due to the impact of the epidemic; Stock removal is suspended. Styrene fundamentals have changed from more to neutral, and it is expected that the recent price fluctuations will return to the mode affected by crude oil and cost support.
Although the global production area is still in the cut-off period, the output from March to April is the lowest level of the whole year, and the import volume is expected to be low in March. However, the demand for rubber was too poor. In terms of replacing tires, the sales data of heavy trucks last year was poor; And high oil prices coupled with epidemic prevention and control led to the contraction of transportation. In terms of supporting tires, the shortage of chips still restricts the production of new cars. The latest all steel tire operating rate fell by 10% to 52% month on month (MOM) compared with the previous week, even lower than the same period in 2020. Although the absolute price of rubber is low, it can still be configured as a short position due to the continuous deterioration of demand.
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