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SunSirs: Recently, Chinese Aluminum Prices Show Signs of Bottoming out and Stabilizing
November 25 2021 09:07:16SunSirs(Linda)

Spot aluminum prices move down slightly on the 24th

On November 24, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 19,130 ​​yuan/ton, compared with the average market price of 19186.67 yuan/ton on November 23, a daily drop of 0.30%.

The current aluminum price has fallen below the previous high and fluctuating operating range. At this year's peak (October 19, 2021) aluminum ingot market average price of 124,240 yuan / ton, the recent cumulative decline of 21.08%. Taking the average market price of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) at 15,726.67 yuan/ton as the benchmark price, the cumulative increase has been reduced to 21.64%.

Recent influence factors

According to the National Development and Reform Commission, on November 20th, the coal stock in the power plant reached 143 million tons, an increase of more than 35 million tons from the end of October. It can be used for 23 days, exceeding the normal level. Coal for power generation and heating this winter and next spring will be strongly guaranteed. Among them, the power plants in the three northeastern provinces have 15.27 million tons of coal, which has exceeded the level of the same period last year, an increase of 2 million tons from the end of October, and it can be used for 31 days. On November 21st, coal deposits in major northern ports exceeded 25 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons from the beginning of the month, including 5.54 million tons of coal in Qinhuangdao Port. The power pressure data has eased.

From the cost perspective of the industrial chain, alumina prices have recently fallen, thermal coal has recently recovered, and the cost side has fallen; on the demand side, real estate regulation is expected to relax on the news side, and the market atmosphere will be boosted. However, in terms of actual consumption, the demand for downstream replenishment is poor, and the downstream demand for aluminum is still weak due to the traditional off-season.

In terms of inventory, as of November 18, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in five places was 1.038 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory in the same period last year was 615,000 tons. The current social inventory is at the middle level of the same period in the past five years. In the near future, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the previous low inventory is favorable to fade.

Outlook forecast

Recently, aluminum ingots have bottomed out and stabilized and returned to the 19,000 line. In the short term, due to the positive news from real estate, the price of the previous period has been lowered and market expectations have improved. However, the current actual demand is still relatively ordinary, and social inventories will continue to accumulate. It is expected to be short-term Internally stabilized, but the upside has narrowed, and the operating range is 18500-19500 yuan/ton.

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