SunSirs--China Commodity Data Group

Sign In

Join Now

Home > Commodity News > News Detail
Commodity News
USDA Report is Negative, Pulses Have been Adjusted
April 13 2021 08:23:27SunSirs(Linda)

External disk trend: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures fell on Friday, while soybean meal fell. CBOT May soybean futures rose -12.3 cents to 1403 cents per bushel, May soybean meal contract rose -5.6 dollars to 401.2 US dollars per short ton; May soybean oil contract rose -0.5 cents to 50.93 cents per pound.

Disk trend: ①A2105 closed at 5579, -0.07% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 213,655 lots and an open interest of 87,546 hands, -5370; A5-September spread -45; ②B2105 closed at 3993, -2.75 from the previous trading day %, the trading volume was 43,683 hands, the open interest was 11,715 hands, -3034; ③M2109 closed at 3453, -1.93% from the previous trading day, the trading volume was 1221623 hands, the open interest was 15,47079 hands, 652 hands, the basis difference between Jiangsu spot and M2105 was -48 , The basis difference with M2109 is -163, and the spread between M5 and September is -115; ④Y2109 contract closed at 7946, -1.85% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 707,487 lots and open interest of 383669 lots, 16580, and a Y5-September spread of 614.

News: 1. The U.S. soybean harvest area for 2020/2021 is 82.3 million acres (82.3 million acres last month, 75 million acres last year), with a yield of 50.2 bu (50.2 bu last month, 47.4 bu last year) and 4.135 billion bu (above Monthly 4.135 billion cats, 3.552 billion cats last year), export 2.280 billion cats (2.250 billion cats last month, 1.676 billion cats last year), squeeze 2.190 billion cats (2.2 billion cats last month, 2.165 billion cats last year), ending stocks 120 million cats (expected 119 million cats, 120 million cats last month, 575 million cats last year). 2. The weekly report issued by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange stated that in the week ending April 7, the progress of the 2020/21 soybean harvest in Argentina reached 3.5%, which was higher than the 1% a week ago.

Market price: domestic soybean price is 5640. The price of soybean meal from oil plants in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu: 3290, -20. Dealers in Tianjin area quoted 9210 first-class soybean oil. Zhangjiagang dealers quoted 9380. Guangzhou traders quoted 9230. (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Inventory of warehouse receipts: 1,675 lots of Douyi warehouse receipts, 200 lots; Doudou No. 2 warehouse receipts 0 lots, 0 lots. Soybean meal warehouse receipts were 8,288 lots, 0. Soybean oil warehouse orders 600 lots, 0 lots. As of the week of April 2, the total soybean meal inventory of oil plants in major coastal areas in China was 774,400 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from 743,100 tons last week, an increase of 0.3%, and an increase of 183.97% from 272,700 tons in the same period last year. . As of the week of April 2, the total domestic soybean oil commercial stocks totaled 622,600 tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons, or 7.5%, from 673,100 tons last week.

Main positions: Bean 1 2105 contract top 20 long positions 58891,612, short position 52792, -2612, net position 6099; Bean 2105 contract top 20 long positions 7366, -1460, short position 7468, -1166, net position -102. Soybean meal 2109 top 20 long positions 948978, -15610, short positions 1235857, 7358, net positions -286879. The top 20 soybean oil 2109 contracts are long 254886, 13265, short 296696, 4969, and net position -41810. (Unit: hand)

View summary:

Bean 1: The demand for soy products has declined compared with the previous period. Driven by the psychological drive of buying up and not buying down in the terminal market, the wait-and-see sentiment has also begun to be strong, and the procurement effort has been weak; coupled with the recent continuous weakening of the soybean May futures contract, The spot market has brought panic, the stocks of traders have stagnated, and the willingness to go to the warehouse is strong. With the warmer weather, farmers have gradually begun to prepare for spring farming. The enthusiasm for selling grain has increased, and the supply of soybeans in the market has gradually increased, which has brought disadvantages to domestic soybeans. However, the soybean inventory of farmers in the Guannei area has basically bottomed out, and the phenomenon of high-quality and high-price is highlighted. In addition, the profit of corn planting is considerable. This year, farmers tend to plant corn and plant fewer soybeans, which will bring benefits to the soybean market. Overall, it is expected that short-term soybean prices may fluctuate weakly.

Bean 2: The report released by the Brazilian consulting agency AgRural on Monday showed that as of April 1, Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean harvest was 78% completed, 7% higher than 71% a week ago, but lower than 83% in the same period last year . In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange issued a weekly report that in the week ending April 7, Argentina's soybean harvest in 2020/21 reached 3.5%, which was higher than 1% a week ago. The average yield of soybeans harvested in Argentina is 3.1 tons per hectare. The exchange lowered the soybean production forecast to 43 million tons, lower than the previous forecast of 44 million tons, and also lower than the 49 million tons in 2019/20 due to the dry weather caused by the La Niña phenomenon. It is expected that imported beans will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the intraday homeopathic operation will be the main focus.

Soybean meal: The USDA moderately raised its export forecast to offset the negative impact of the slight reduction in crushing, resulting in the end-of-term inventory forecast data remaining unchanged from last month’s estimate of 120 million bu, slightly higher than the previous market’s 119 million bu At the same time, Argentina’s soybean production remained unchanged at 47.5 million tons while Brazil’s production estimate was raised by 2 million tons to 136 million tons. The impact of this report on the soybean market is slightly neutral. The price of US soybeans has been adjusted. From the perspective of soybean meal fundamentals, soybean squeezing profit is at a loss, restricting soybean imports. In addition, the crushing rate of oil plants fell again last week. Under the background of improving soybean meal trading volume, soybean meal stocks declined. At the same time, with the warmer weather, aquaculture has recovered, boosting the demand for soybean meal. However, Brazilian beans are about to arrive in Hong Kong in large quantities, and the price of live pigs continues to fall, restricting farmers’ enthusiasm for restocking. In addition, the price of corn is too high and feed companies adjust formulas to replace corn with wheat and rice. The high protein content of wheat will lead to soybean meal. With the decline in consumption, soybean meal transactions have not yet increased in volume, and inventories have increased again. Some oil plants are accelerating and restricting soybean meal prices. Soybean meal is still in shock in the short term, and the direction is not clear.

Soybean oil: USDA moderately raised its export forecast to offset the negative impact of the slight reduction in crushing, resulting in the end-of-term inventory forecast data remaining unchanged from last month’s estimate of 120 million bu, slightly higher than the previous market’s 119 million bu At the same time, Argentina’s soybean production remained unchanged at 47.5 million tons while Brazil’s production estimate was raised by 2 million tons to 136 million tons. The impact of this report on the soybean market is slightly neutral. The price of US soybeans has been adjusted. From the perspective of oil and fat fundamentals, the crush rate of oil mills fell again last week, leading to a continued decline in oil and fat inventories. Under the background that the overall inventory pressure of soybean oil, palm oil and rape oil is not large, there is still a certain degree of support under the oil. However, South American soybeans are about to go on the market. In addition, policy control risks still exist. At the same time, the seasonal increase cycle in Southeast Asia will gradually approach. The MPOB report shows that Malay production has increased rapidly, causing Malay palm oil inventories to be higher than market expectations and dragging down the overall oil trend. On the whole, the rebound is expected to be limited, pay attention to the support of the 60-day moving average below 2109 of soybean oil.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

Exchange Rate:

8 Industries
Energy
Chemical
Rubber & Plastics
Textile
Non-ferrous Metals
Steel
Building Materials
Agricultural & Sideline Products