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SunSirs: China's Agricultural Product Index Bottomed out and Rebounded due to the Pull of Oil Market
March 05 2021 08:24:10SunSirs(Linda)

The agricultural sideline index on March 4 was 1255 points, a decrease of 2.03% from the highest point in the cycle of 1281 points (2021-01-19), and an increase of 53.80% from the lowest point of 816 points on January 3, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to present)

According to SunSirs monitoring data, the agricultural sideline index has experienced several twists and turns since 2020, with constant fluctuations and fluctuations. The lowest point of the year fell below 1050 points in May, and the highest point broke through 1220 points in December. By 2021, in the first half of January, the agricultural by-product index is still rising, breaking through the highest point in 2020, reaching 1280 points. The diving began in the second half of the month. After the Spring Festival, agricultural products rebounded again, and the index returned to the 1250 line.

Long-short game, agricultural products have fluctuated at the beginning of the year

In the first four months of 2020, the rise and fall of agricultural products varied. Affected by the hindrance of logistics and transportation, the rigid demand for soy products increased, and domestic soybeans continued to rise, breaking a record high, with an increase of nearly 30%. Due to the cancellation of centralized gatherings in the catering industry, the centralized consumption demand for products such as fats, live pigs, and eggs has decreased, and prices have been falling. The agricultural product index fluctuated mainly within a narrow range as a whole, and the market was weak.

The oil market is on the rise, agricultural products bottom out and rebound
In mid-May, the agricultural product index began to rise, the catering industry recovered, and good news continued to be good for foreign markets. There were frequent rumors of soybean oil purchasing and storage. The oil market ended the continued sluggish market and began to make full efforts to lead the agricultural product index to continue to rise. , Eggs are affected by holidays and fluctuate greatly, and the agricultural product index continues to adjust as it rises. In the end, it still rides the wind and waves to turn things around. In the second half of the year, agricultural products continue to oscillate and rise.

In January 2021, with the help of the sharp rise in the oil and fat market, the agricultural product index rose sharply for half a month, exceeding the highest point in 2020. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market for oils and fats has taken a sharp turn, and pigs and eggs have also continued to fall. Double Meal is even weaker. The agricultural product index has started the diving market. In early March, the oil and fat rose and fell sharply, and the Double Meal plunged sharply. The agricultural product index started a narrow oscillation mode.

According to the bottoming out price monitoring, on March 4, 2021, the agricultural and sideline sector increased in the commodity price list on March 4, 2021. The top 3 commodities were DDGS (2.65%), soybean oil (2.37%), Palm oil (1.75%).

There are two commodities that have fallen from the previous month. The top two products are soybean meal (-1.51%) and rapeseed meal (-0.83%).
The average daily increase and decrease was 0.23%.

Bottoming and rebounding. Agricultural product analysts believe that after the Spring Festival, affected by terminal demand, the agricultural product sector has opened up a polarized market. Oils and fats have risen and fallen, and the stamina is insufficient. Shuang Meal has started a sharp diving market. The market for pigs and eggs is weird, and the market is constantly rising and falling. . In March, agricultural products are still facing continuous differentiation, oil has risen to the ceiling, and the market has gradually recovered. Shuang Meal has fallen to a low point and is expected to rebound. Live pigs and eggs are still unpredictable.

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