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SunSirs: Sharp Contradiction between Supply and Demand, Will China's Heavy Rare Earth Prices Continue to Rise?
March 02 2021 08:49:21SunSirs(Linda)

The price of Chinese direct line rose sharply, and the market price hit an 8-year high. As of March 1, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.85 million yuan/ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.83 million yuan/ton, and the price of dysprosium metal was 3.4 million yuan/ton. Domestic terbium The price of the system reached a 10-year high. On the 1st, the domestic price of terbium oxide was 9.85 million yuan/ton, and the price of terbium metal was 12.5 million yuan/ton.

The main factor for the sharp increase in domestic heavy rare earth market prices is the sharp contradiction between supply and demand.

On the supply side: The situation in Myanmar is not optimistic. The global supply of rare earths is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a greater impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the source of imported goods has been greatly reduced. The contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to a sharp increase in the price of heavy rare earths. In addition to the normal production of domestic heavy rare earths, it can be said that the large gap in domestic demand for heavy rare earths can be described as powerless. The domestic rare earth purchasing and storage plan is a big good for supporting domestic heavy rare earth prices. In February 2021, the "State Council's Report on Supporting the Old Revolutionary Zones in the New Era The “Opinions on Revitalizing Development” proposes to promote the construction of the “China Rare Gold Valley” and study the policy for the purchase and storage of medium and heavy rare earths and tungsten resources. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earths account for a large proportion of the annual output. Big impact.

In terms of demand: downstream demand continues to expand, and the demand for permanent magnets has continued to increase recently. New energy vehicles have been on fire from 2020 to 2021. According to insiders, the rare earth gap may continue throughout 2021. The main rare earth materials of high-performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving inverter air conditioners, traditional automobiles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to set a single-month historical record of sales. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 194,000 and 179,000 respectively, a year-on-year increase of 285.8% and 238.5% respectively. The downstream demand is rising. It is said that the demand gap has been increasing. Due to the tight supply in the terbium market and the imbalance between supply and demand, the market price of the terbium system has reached a high level.

According to SunSirs monitoring, the price index of the domestic rare earth market is rising. According to the SunSirs rare earth sector index, the rare earth index on February 28 was 546 points, which was 45.40% lower than the cycle highest point of 1000 points (2011-12-06), compared with 2015. On September 13, 2009, the lowest point of 271 points increased by 101.48%. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 till now).

The domestic rare earth index began to rise in November 2020, and the SunSirs rare earth index has increased by about 200 points in the past four months. The price increase in the domestic light rare earth market is also quite alarming. Domestic new energy vehicle sales have increased, and terminal industries such as wind power and electronic products have developed rapidly. As the epidemic slows down, downstream manufacturers’ capacity utilization rate continues, and demand is mainly for on-demand procurement. The demand for neodymium iron boron is still high. New energy vehicles and The boom in the consumer electronics industry has also boosted the price of rare earths. Data shows that the current global demand for high-performance NdFeB is mainly concentrated in the automotive sector (traditional cars are close to 40%, and new energy vehicles account for more than 12%). The rest are wind power, consumer electronics, inverter air conditioners, and energy-saving appliances. Both are in the range of 8%-10%. The downstream demand is rising, and the domestic rare earth market prices continue to rise.

In 2021, SunSirs's first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total control indicators increased significantly, which is related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of Natural Resources issued the 2021 total rare earth mining total control indicators, and the first batch of rare earth mines (rare earth oxide REO) in 2021 , The same below) The total mining control index is 84,000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly heavy rare earth) rare earth minerals and 72510 tons of rock and mineral (light) rare earth minerals. The first batch of tungsten concentrates (65% tungsten trioxide content, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63,000 tons, of which 46,890 tons are the main mining index and 16,110 tons are the comprehensive utilization index. In 2021, we will continue to control the total amount of rare earth mines and tungsten mines. The national government policies are favorable and the market prices of rare earths continue to rise.

As the downstream areas of new energy vehicles, wind power, and inverter air conditioners continue to increase in volume, the demand for rare earths will continue to increase, which is expected to drive further growth in demand. The global rare earth supply gap is expected to continue to expand. Domestic rare earth demand remains high, and domestic rare earth supply remains high. Significantly tense, the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is sharp, and wind power analysts predict that the rare earth market prices may continue to rise later.

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