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SunSirs: Nov 11 and Christmas are Coming, Cocoon and Silk are Expected to Swing Higher
October 25 2019 15:56:55SunSirs(Linda)

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the market prices of domestic dry cocoon have kept rising in October. On Oct 15, the price stopped dropping and began to be stable after a slight decrease. On Oct 24, the average market price was 136,750RMB/t, 4.39% higher than that of the beginning of October, 2.67% lower year on year. The raw silk market showed a similar price trend. On Oct 24, the market average price was 410,000 RMB/t, 2.5% higher than the beginning of the month, 4.43% lower year on year.

Recent (Oct 16-23) market prices of cocoon and silk in India (INR/kg)

 

hybrid cocoon

bivoltine cocoon

polyvoltine cocoon

bivoltine silk

Oct 16

200-451

600-1950

370-410

2,700-3,550

Oct 17

193-450

600-1950

370-410

2,700-3,450

Oct 21

225-435

600-1950

370-410

2,700-3,400

Oct 22

233-460

600-1950

370-410

2,875-3,600

Oct 23

233-440

625-850

750

2,700-3,500

The Indian market prices (up to Oct 23): the price of the hybrid cocoon was 233-440INR/kg, the price of the bivoltine cocoon was 625-850INR/kg, the price of the polyvoltine cocoon was 750INR/kg, the price of the bivoltine silk was 2,700-3,500INR/kg. The price of the hybrid cocoon decreased than last day. The price of the bivoltine cocoon decreased around 56.41%. The price of the polyvoltine cocoon increased. The price of the bivoltine silk decreased slightly. (1INR = 0.099RMB)

In late October, the listing situation of cocoons in the second half of the year is gradually clear. Compared with the price of 32-38RMB/kg in the first half of the year, the purchase price of cocoons in the second half is higher due to the reduction of raw materials, silkworm seeds and other factors. The purchase price of each kg is generally above 48RMB, which is at least 15RMB/kg higher than the price in the first half. However, affected by the prices in the first half, the silkworm farmers' enthusiasm for sericulture has been hit to a certain extent, leading to the fact that some silkworm farmers did not carry out summer cutting in the mulberry gardens, resulting in the phenomenon of insufficient mulberry leaves in the late stage of sericulture. In terms of the four batches of output that have been listed in Yizhou, some experts said that compared with the same period last year, the listing volume of fresh cocoons has decreased. At present, the fourth batch of autumn cocoons in Yizhou, Guangxi is coming to the end of the listing. The quality of the fresh cocoons is generally good, but the purchase price is relatively high, with an average of about 56RMB/kg. In addition, the autumn cocoons in Xincheng continue to be purchased, with a price of about 54RMB/kg.

The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced that it will start the exclusion process for China's $300 billion tariff list products from October 31. From October 31, 2019 to January 31, 2020, U.S. interested parties may apply to USTR for exclusion. The information to be provided includes the substitutability of relevant products, whether they have been subject to anti-dumping and countervailing duties, whether they have important strategic significance or are related to industrial policies such as made in China 2025, etc. If the exclusion application is approved, the duties already imposed since September 1, 2019 can be returned retroactively. Now there are signs of easing in Sino US trade. In the coming Christmas season, it is still necessary to track whether the overstocked list of foreign trade can be released.

In terms of import and export, according to the statistics of China Customs, the import and export volume of silk goods in August was 162 million US dollars, 15.79% less month on month, 15.25% less year on year. Among them, the export was 146 million US dollars, 14.78%less month on month, 15.06% less year on year; the import volume was 16.43 million US dollars, 23.82% less month on month, 16.87% less year on year. From January to August, the total import and export volume of real silk goods was 1.341 billion US dollars, 40.99% less year on year, accounting for 0.69% of China's total import and export volume of textiles and clothing.

On the supply side, the reduction of production since the new cocoon season this year has made the purchase price of fresh cocoons higher, driving the price of raw silk rising. However, the current export is not smooth, the silk factory purchase intention is not strong, and the back-end sales are hindered to a certain extent, resulting in a small drop in recent prices. Of course, the November 11 e-commerce season, Christmas stock up season, and silk cotton peak sales season are also to be expected. To sum up, business analysts expect that the short-term cocoon silk market will still show a strong trend of shocks.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

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