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SunSirs: Prices Hit an Eight-Year High, China's Rare Earths Catch up with the Crazy Bull Market
March 01 2021 09:30:17SunSirs(Linda)

After the Spring Festival, the prices of some bulk commodities rushed all the way, and many "breaking new highs" and "flying soaring" were continuously staged. Many products in the non-ferrous industry rose sharply. Rare earths are no exception. The so-called "strong generals have no weak soldiers". Recently, rare earths Market prices have repeatedly hit new highs. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price index of the domestic rare earth market continues to rise. The price of domestic praseodymium and neodymium rare earths has repeatedly hit new highs, the price of terbium has risen to a 10-year high, and the price of dysprosium has reached an 8-year high. The rare earth sector index shows that on February 24, the rare earth index was 516 points, a decrease of 48.40% from the highest point during the cycle of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and an increase of 90.41% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 till now).

The domestic rare earth sector index has been soaring. Recently, the rare earth market has been rushing all the way, and market prices have risen one after another. Specific to the product:

Domestic prices of neodymium praseodymium oxide, neodymium praseodymium alloy, neodymium oxide, and metal neodymium have all reached 8-year highs. This round of rising has not stopped since mid-December 2020, and prices on the market have continued to rise sharply. As of February 25th, the domestic rare earth neodymium oxide price is 540,000 yuan/ton; the price of neodymium praseodymium alloy is 665,000 yuan/ton; the price of neodymium oxide is 635,000 yuan/ton; the price of neodymium metal is 785,000 yuan/ton. , The domestic light rare earth market continues to rise.

The sharp rise of the domestic rare earth industry is mainly driven by two aspects. On the one hand, the domestic environment has been improving recently. Many non-ferrous products on the market have repeatedly set new highs. Products such as copper and aluminum have risen by more than 40%. , The price of rare earth products continued to rise. On the other hand, the downstream demand continues to expand. The demand for permanent magnets has continued to increase recently. New energy vehicles have been on fire from 2020 to 2021. The upstream materials of rare earth permanent magnets have also taken a ride. According to insiders, the rare earth gap may increase. Continue throughout 2021. The main rare earth materials of high-performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving inverter air conditioners, traditional automobiles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to set a single-month historical record of sales. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 194,000 and 179,000 respectively, a year-on-year increase of 285.8% and 238.5% respectively. Downstream demand is rising. It is said that the demand gap has been increasing, and the domestic light rare earth market prices continue to rise. Recently, the price of terbium series in the domestic heavy rare earth market has reached a 10-year high, and the price of dysprosium series has reached an 8-year high.

Domestic prices of dysprosium series continued to rise. As of the 25th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.7 million yuan/ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.6 million yuan/ton, and the price of dysprosium metal was 3.275 million yuan/ton. The domestic price of terbium rose sharply, and domestic terbium oxide The price is 9.3 million yuan/ton, the price of terbium metal is 11.9 million yuan/ton, the price of terbium series has risen to a new high level in 10 years, and the domestic market price of heavy rare earths has repeatedly set new highs.

The reasons for the sharp increase in the price of the domestic heavy rare earth market include several aspects. The first rare earth supply is tightening, the political situation in Myanmar is turbulent, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. The Myanmar side has a greater impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the import source has been greatly reduced. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to a sharp increase in the price of heavy rare earths. Second, the impact of the domestic rare earth purchasing and storage policy is a major benefit to support domestic heavy rare earth prices. The medium and heavy rare earths in the purchasing and storage plan account for a large proportion of the annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply, demand and price of the medium and heavy rare earths. Third, the downstream demand has continued to rise in the near future, the application of new energy has grown rapidly, and the demand for permanent magnets has increased sharply. This has brought the most favorable support for the heavy rare earth market. The price of direct products in the heavy rare earth market has continued to rise. Due to the tight supply in the terbium market, the supply and demand are imbalanced. The market price of terbium has risen sharply.

Domestic policies are even more supportive to the rare earth industry. In February 2021, the "Opinions of the State Council on Supporting the Revitalization and Development of Old Revolutionary Areas in the New Era" proposed to promote the construction of the "China Rare Gold Valley" and study the purchase and storage policies for medium and heavy rare earths and tungsten resources. The purchase and storage of rare earths accounted for a large proportion of heavy rare earths, which brought greater support to the domestic market, and the domestic rare earth market prices rose sharply. In addition, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total control indicators increased significantly in 2021, which is related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of Natural Resources issued the 2021 total rare earth mining total control indicators, and the first batch of rare earth mines (rare earth oxides) in 2021 REO, the same below) The total mining control index is 84,000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly heavy rare earth) rare earth minerals and 72510 tons of rock and mineral (light) rare earth minerals. The first batch of tungsten concentrates (65% tungsten trioxide content, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63,000 tons, of which 46,890 tons are the main mining index and 16,110 tons are the comprehensive utilization index. In 2021, we will continue to control the total amount of rare earth mines and tungsten mines. The national government policies are favorable and the market prices of rare earths continue to rise.

The recent downstream demand promotion, especially the continuous recovery of the manufacturing industry, is expected to drive further demand growth. Domestic new energy demand has increased significantly. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is acute. SunSirs analysts predict that the rare earth market may be in the future. Popular all the way.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

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