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USDA Supply and Demand Report is Positive, Zhengzhou Cotton Increases Positions
January 14 2021 08:56:51Ruida Futures(Linda)

Domestic disk: Zhengzhou cotton 2105 contract increased positions reduction; closing at 15345, +1.72% from the previous trading day; highest at 15460, lowest at 15185; trading volume 318696, position 559502, +1595; CF May-September spread of 185, +5. CY2105 closed at 22225, +1.21% from the previous trading day; the highest was 22,300, and the lowest was 21990; the volume was 11214, and the position was 8726, +140.

External disk trends: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures rose more than 1% on Tuesday to the highest level in more than two years. March cotton closed up 1.27 cents or 1.57%, and the settlement price was 81.70 cents/lb. It touched 81.77 cents in the session.

News: 1. A sample survey by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System showed that as of the beginning of January, the average number of days of cotton inventory of the sampled enterprises was about 35.9 days (including the number of imported cotton), an increase of 4.6 days from the previous month and an increase of 4 days from the same period last year. 2. As of December 31, the total processing volume of 978 400-type cotton processing enterprises nationwide was approximately 4,740,800 tons, an increase of 4.14% year-on-year.

In terms of spot, the cotton price index 3128B was 15257, up 66 from the previous day's spot price; the cotton yarn price index C32S was 22800, which remained unchanged from the previous day's spot price. (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Warehouse receipt inventory: 15883 Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts, +235, effective forecast 1903.

Position analysis: The top 20 long positions of Zhengzhou cotton contract on that day were 390,100 lots, short positions were 546889 lots, and net short positions were 156,789 lots. On that day, the top 20 long positions in cotton yarn contracts were 8611 lots, short positions were 8,846 lots, and net short positions were 235 lots.

Summary of views: In the latest report on global cotton supply and demand released by the US Department of Agriculture: The total global production for 2020/21 is expected to be reduced by 226,000 tons from the previous month to 24.574 million tons, and the consumption is expected to increase by 21,000 tons to 25.196 million tons. Imports Trade volume increased by 65,000 tons to 9.391 million tons, and global ending inventory decreased by 262,000 tons to 20.97 million tons. In 2020/21, global cotton consumption will slightly increase, and output and ending stocks will decrease. The overall usda supply and demand report is relatively more than that of the cotton market. Domestic cotton market: Due to the newly confirmed cases in Shijiazhuang and Xingtai, the purchase and processing of cotton in Hebei have been affected, and the overall supply of real estate cotton has decreased significantly. In addition, the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply and demand report estimates that the reduction of global production and the increase of consumption are undoubtedly a good guide for the cotton market. In this case, Zhengzhou cotton will still be adjusted upwards. However, as the current terminal printing and dyeing enterprises are close to parking, the downstream new orders increase less than the previous period, and Zhengzhou cotton futures prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. Operationally, it is recommended that Zhengzhou cotton 2105 contract sell high and buy low in the range of 15000-15600 yuan/ton in the short term.

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