According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the cement market in 2020 falls first and then rises. The average price in East China was 548.20 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the year, the lowest price was 412.60 RMB/ ton on August 4, and 508.40 RMB/ ton on December 30, with an annual comprehensive increase of 23.22% from the lowest point in August to the highest point in December. Current prices are down 7.26% from last year.
In 2020, the cement market will fall first and then rise. Generally speaking, there are two waves of rise in the whole year. One is the spring rise from the middle and late April to the end of May, with an increase of about 3%. Compared with previous years, this year's spring rise started late due to the impact of the epidemic situation, and the rise rate is also low. In the second half of the year, the price began to rise in early August, and the rise rate slowed down due to the impact of environmental protection. However, until the end of December, the cement market was still at a low level Compared with previous years, this wave of rise started earlier, but the follow-up is weak, and the highest price is lower than previous years. The highest point of cement in East China exceeded 500 RMB/ ton. The soaring price in East China has also led other regions to rise in turn, and the increase in many places is even higher than that in East China. The focus of cement price in China has obviously moved up.
Compared with last year, the rise in 2020 presents several characteristics: first, the spring rise in 2020 starts late due to the impact of the epidemic, and the range is relatively low; second, the autumn rise rapidly recovers to a higher level after the previous downturn, which is one month earlier than that in September of previous years, which is also in line with the law of rising demand after the improvement of the epidemic. In 2020, the annual production and sales volume of cement is expected to be 2.2-2.3 billion tons, and that of clinker is expected to be 1.58 billion tons, slightly higher than that of 2019. At present, the cement industry is still overcapacity. Generally speaking, the infrastructure investment and the huge stock of real estate projects in 2020 have driven the demand for cement. The annual demand for cement is limited by the epidemic situation. The overall operation of the cement market is stable, but the highest market has a slight decline compared with previous years.
Recently, the weather has gradually turned cold. Affected by the gradual decline of infrastructure and real estate operation rate in the lower reaches of East China, the demand for cement has weakened, and the delivery volume of cement enterprises has generally decreased to 50-60%. According to the prediction of SunSirs, in the short term, the price of cement will gradually stabilize. In the later period, the festival is approaching, or there may be a certain degree of correction and decline, but the infrastructure construction will still maintain growth. It is expected that the spring cement market in 2021 will gradually open in early March.
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