SunSirs: Oct 16
Since the middle of September, the market prices of heavy rare earth in China have fallen sharply, the price of dysprosium oxide has dropped from 1,930,000RMB/t to 1,745,000RMB/t, with an overall drop of 9.59%; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy has dropped from 1,930,000 RMB/t to 1,745,000RMB/t, with a drop of 9.59%; the market price of light rare earth has also fallen correspondingly, the price of neodymium oxide has dropped from 332,500RMB/t to 314,500RMB/t; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy has decreased from 415,500RMB/t to 395,000RMB/t, with a decrease of 4.93%; the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide has decreased from 330,500RMB/t to 312,500 RMB/t, with a decrease of 5.45%. In recent years, the prices of heavy rare earth in China have declined significantly, and the prices of light rare earth market have declined slightly. In recent years, Myanmar has reopened its gateway, and the supply of heavy rare earth in China has increased. Affected by the low price selling of some manufacturers, the prices of heavy rare earth market have been falling continuously.
On Oct 15, the Rare Earth Commodity Index was 367, the same as that of yesterday, 63.30% lower than the peak of 1,000 in the cycle (Dec 6, 2011), and 35.42% higher than the lowest point of 271 (Sep 13, 2015). (Cycle: Dec 1, 2011 to date)
Recently, the prices of rare earth market have been declining continuously, and the prices of heavy rare earth have declined sharply. With the reopening of the gateway in Myanmar, the supply of heavy rare earth in the domestic market has increased, some on-site merchants have sold off, and the prices of heavy rare earth in the domestic market have been falling. In addition, in the near future, the demand for permanent magnet is still not improving, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products is declining, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is not good and the market prices go low. The price fluctuation is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth’s production has particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision more stringent. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, the manufacturers reasonably controlled the sales, but recently, the downstream demand has been limited, some enterprises sold at low prices, and the market prices of light rare earth were correspondingly lower.
The National Environmental Protection Department has not reduced its stringent efforts, which has a great impact on the Rare Earth industry, the operating rate has been low, the market has been cold, and there has been regulations of Rare-Earth industry in Jiangxi, a large province of Rare-Earth producing, all of which are good news to the Market. Recently, the Supervisory Group of the State Council has gone to Jiangxi Rare Earth enterprises. This inspection closely centered on the major deployment of the Central Committee of the Communist of China and the State Council, highlighted the key and difficult issues in the field of economic operation and reform and development, and focused on the strong blockades and pain points reflected by the people and the market subjects, so as to promote the implementation of various tasks from point to area. Besides, the NDRC and departments concerned have promoted effective measures urgently，strengthen the consolidation and made the related management mechanisms innovate and improved, in order to accelerate the construction of a development pattern which consists of a rational industrial structure, an advanced scientific and technological level, the effective resources protection and the orderly production and operation and to add the special value of Rare Earth as a strategic resource. The supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the Rare Earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news on policies and State Reserve.
Rare Earth analyst from SunSirs expects that some prices of Rare Earth may remain at low. Although the supply may stay at low as well, caused by the strict environmental protection inspection and the regulation of the industry, the downstream demand is still not good and the import of heavy rare earth has increased.
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