SunSirs: Oct 16

1. Product name: standard aluminum ingot (99.70)

2. Latest price (Oct16, 2019): 13,896.67RMB/t

3. Analysis points:

Since the middle of September, aluminum prices have been falling continuously. On the one hand, the production capacity that was shut down for some reasons in the early stage has gradually recovered, and the domestic supply pressure has been reflected in the market in advance.

It is reported that in the near future, about 50,000 tons of capacity at Qinghai Xibu Hydro Power has been resumed; 500,000 tons of affected capacity in the early stage of Xinjiang Xinfa has been resumed one after another; 450,000 tons of capacity has been resumed at Shandong Weiqiao, and the remaining capacity is still in the process of recovery; 250,000 tons of capacity of Baotou Xinhengfeng Phase II is expected to start power on and put into operation on Oct 15. After October, 200,000 tons of Chuangyuan Metals, 100,000 tons of Yunnan Shenhuo Phase I, 150,000 tons of Yunnan Qiya, 150,000 tons of Baikuang and 250,000 tons of Guangyuan Linfeng are planned to be put into production again, totaling about 850,000 tons.

On the other hand, the main reason is that the early news of Indonesia's ban led to a sharp rise in aluminum prices. Based on the release of news that Indonesia's bauxite accounts for 10-20% of the total import of domestic bauxite, the market estimates whether Indonesia's ban on bauxite or not has limited impact on aluminum prices, and the expectation of long is broken. The prices of aluminum ingot gradually return to reflect the actual supply and demand.

4. Future forecast:

In the near future, alumina prices are relatively strong, the cost of aluminum ingots is strongly supported, the social inventory is significantly lower than that in the early stage, the overall fundamentals are good. In addition, at present, aluminum ingot prices basically reverse the previous gains, and the downward space is limited. Attention is paid to the actual transaction situation in the market.

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