According to SunSirs monitoring, the average price of first-grade sugar was 5750 yuan/ton on the 15th, and the price was stable.

1. Market Analysis

Supply problems occurred at the beginning of the new milling season on 19/20, and the inventory carried over from the previous milling season was lower than expected. As a result, there was not much stale sugar in the alternate phase of the new milling season and the old milling season. It was not until the cane sugar was squeezed that it gradually returned to rationality.

The output of the 19/20 crushing season is estimated to be 9.8 million tons at a minimum. Since then, with the deepening of squeezing and the recovery of sugar content, the output is expected to continue to be increased. In the late stage of the crushing season, especially in Yunnan producing areas, the production time has been extended by one month. The output also greatly exceeded the market consensus, which eventually led to an increase in domestic sugar production to 10.42 million tons, slightly lower than the 10.76 million tons in the previous crushing season, consumption was reduced to about 14.5 million tons, and imports were expected to increase by 500,000 tons to 3.8 million tons. Throwing reserves of 600,000 tons, smuggling is expected to be reduced to 800,000 tons, the overall inventory will increase by about 935,000 tons to more than 5.87 million tons.

2. Late prediction

In the short term, most sugar factories in the main northern sugar beet sugar production areas have started production, and the area and output are expected to maintain a slight increase. The southern sugarcane production areas are expected to gradually enter the production season next month. The temperature at the current time node is important for the later sugar content and The output impact is more critical. In the second half of this year, the total amount of imported sugar and smuggled sugar was lower than expected. Domestic sugar is still the mainstream supply in the current market. Consumption and demand recovered faster in the second half of the epidemic. Before the new sugar was launched, prices were supported by demand and costs. After the listing, the supply pressure increases, the annual production and demand gap is not obvious, the market supply pressure still exists, and there is little room for upper and lower expectations

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