Aluminum market trend
According to the data of SunSirs, as of June 28, the average market price of Chinese aluminum ingots was 14,030 yuan / ton, up 4.00% compared with the average market price of 13,490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (June 1), and up 24.93% compared with the lowest average market price of 11,230 yuan / ton in the year (March 24).
The price difference between domestic and foreign countries affects the export and import volume
In May 2020, China exported 382,900 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%. From January to may, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 2.012 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%..
According to the data of the General Administration of customs, China imported 119,145 tons of unprocessed aluminum and aluminum materials in May, slightly lower than the six-year high of 121,025 tons hit in March, 12.3% higher than that in April and 164.8% higher than that in the same period last year.
Aluminum ingots are obviously removed from social inventory
On June 15, the social stock of electrolytic aluminum in China has dropped to 767,000 tons, and the stock of Chinese aluminum ingots as of June 18 was 75.3 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons compared with last week. It is reported that some Chinese electrolytic aluminum production capacity has not been fully restored since the reduction of production in late March. Some other enterprises have increased the supply of aluminum water, which has reduced the spot supply of aluminum ingots.
In July, the spot aluminum price may stand at the line of 14,000
1. In May, the output of metallurgical grade alumina was 5.581 million tons, and the daily average output of metallurgical grade alumina was 180,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.54%. From January to May, the cumulative output of metallurgical alumina was 27.142 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.19%. The possibility of sharp decline of Chinese alumina in a short period of time is not very likely, and the recent price continues to move well, which is supported by the cost side brought by alumina and favorable for aluminum price.
2. The supply and demand fundamentals of Chinese market have been effectively improved. Although July -- August is the off-season of traditional aluminum consumption, it is expected that the demand for construction, home appliances and medical industry will still be good in July. The ultra-high pressure in the new infrastructure construction and the gradual recovery of automobiles will also drive the demand for aluminum, and the demand for aluminum profiles and aluminum foil is large.
1. Since the middle and last ten days of April, the aluminum price has recovered greatly, and the profit of aluminum ingot manufacturers has gradually recovered. In Shanxi, Yunnan, Sichuan and other places, new production capacity has been put into production, and supply side variables have increased.
2. Risk of secondary outbreak.
1. Real estate completion cycle;
2. Policy support for wire and cable industry;
3. Chinese automobile and home appliance industry consumption situation;
4. Aluminum export situation.
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