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SunSirs: Cost End is Favorable, Chinese Polyester Prices Fluctuate Upward in May
May 28 2020 08:29:54SunSirs(Linda)

According to SunSirs price monitoring, since May, the Chinese polyester market has been oscillating upwards, and various specifications of products have increased to varying degrees. Among them, polyester FDY has the most obvious increase of 11.95%, followed by polyester POY and polyester FDY, 9.28% and 5.16% respectively.

Average price of polyester market, unit: RMB / ton

The strong trend on the cost side is the main reason for the further increase in the price center of the polyester market. Since May, OPEC + has officially put into production reduction process, the supply and demand situation has continued to improve, and oil prices have risen. As of May 26, the US WTI crude oil futures main contract settlement price was reported at $ 34.35 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil futures main contract settlement price was reported at 36.17. USD / barrel. In the PTA market, with 700,000 tons of Liwan polyester, 2.8 million tons of Hanbang Petrochemical, and 400,000 tons of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical successively entering maintenance, the starting load was reduced from 93% at the beginning of the month to 87%. The impact of crude oil stimulation, unexpected failure of its own equipment, and maintenance has kept the price as a whole rising. As of the 27th, the average market price was 3,583 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.87%. After reaching the highest point of 3,632 yuan / ton on the 21st, the trading atmosphere turned down, the hype atmosphere of the superposition device cooled down, and the price fell slightly.

Secondly, the order volume of the downstream textile market in May has improved compared with April, and the inventory of polyester has declined. According to statistics, as of May 27th, POY inventory is around 15-22 days, and FDY inventory is around 16-22 days , And DTY inventory is around 24-34 days. Mainly because, on the one hand, driven by the wave of market prices that began in April this year, some weaving companies have changed their past buying and buying strategies, choosing to purchase raw materials in advance, and some traders have also chosen to stockpile goods The inventory pressure of filament enterprises has been passed on to a certain extent. On the other hand, domestic demand is gradually recovering, and shipments are better than in the previous period. Manufacturers' enthusiasm is rising, and loom operating rates have rebounded by more than 64%. At the same time, some overseas countries announced the unblocking, and the export was quietly launched, and the inquiry was gradually increasing.

SunSirs analysts believe that the overall polyester market in May has entered an upward channel, mainly due to the boost of the raw material market and the improvement of downstream demand. But it is worth noting that the current problem of high load and high inventory of raw material PTA has not been fundamentally resolved, and the continued rise of the market is still under pressure. Specific analysis shows that the domestic PTA start-up load still maintains a high level, and the restart and maintenance coexist in June. Zhongtai, Yisheng, and Yizheng have maintenance plans, but due to the weak upstream PX link, they have continued to make profits. Since May, PTA processing fees have been Fluctuation between 700-800 yuan / ton, such processing fee level is undoubtedly high in the current stage of overcapacity. In the case of high processing fees, the possibility of postponement is not ruled out. In terms of inventory, the contradiction between supply and demand is still more prominent, and the accumulation of inventory is expected. The current social inventory is still maintained at more than 3.5 million tons, and the pressure is still there. Therefore, the price of PTA has been suppressed.

Although the demand for downstream terminals has improved, after entering mid-May, the number of orders began to decrease rapidly, and the market entered the traditional low season. The performance of orders is unstable, and we are cautious about the purchase of raw materials. If subsequent orders cannot be followed in time, the possibility of lowering the load of the loom in late June will not be ruled out. Substantial recovery needs to be observed. At the same time, from the perspective of textile exports, there is still a large gap from last year. Customs data shows that from January to April, China ’s cumulative export of textiles and clothing was 66.626 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 12.06%, of which the cumulative export of textiles was 37.311 billion The US dollar increased by 2.90% year-on-year; the cumulative export value of clothing was US $ 29.308 billion, a decrease of 22.33% year-on-year. This was mainly due to the surge in the export value of anti-epidemic products in textiles in April, which drove the increase in the overall textile export value; but the export value of clothing declined further.

In summary, the negative factors in the upstream and downstream markets still exist, and it is expected that this wave of polyester rally will come to an end in June.

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