Trend of aluminum market

According to SunSirs data, as of May 6, the average domestic aluminum ingot market price was 12,996.67 yuan / ton, which was an increase of 12.756% from the beginning of April 1, which was 11,526.67 yuan / ton.

It is reported that the overseas quotations have exceeded 13,000 yuan / ton, and the recent spot premium on futures has continued to increase. As of May 6, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 12,740 yuan / ton, and the settlement price was 12,700 yuan / ton.

Supply and demand improved in April

With the full-scale roll-out of domestic aluminum consumption, domestic aluminum consumption has risen sharply. According to relevant data, domestic aluminum supply in April was 2.9-2.95 million tons, a decrease of about 100,000 tons from March; domestic aluminum consumption in April was 3.3-3.53 million tons, an increase of about 580,000 tons from March.

 Domestic inventory moves down

In April, the supply and demand situation improved, and the domestic social inventory moved down. The domestic stock of aluminum ingots was 1.204 million tons on April 30, which was about 460,000 tons less than that in March.

Industrial chain transmission Downstream starts to increase prices and sales

As spot aluminum prices have risen, downstream aluminum ingot purchase costs have risen recently, and downstream product prices have started to rise. It is reported that downstream processing companies have a strong willingness to raise prices recently, and many manufacturers have informed customers the fact of price increases.

Market outlook

At present, the recent contract price of aluminum in the futures market is higher than that of forward contracts. The futures market is expected to be bearish, mainly based on consideration of import and export factors. The fundamentals of supply and demand in the domestic market have been effectively improved, social inventories have continued to move down, and the current price level has rebounded, partially alleviating the pressure on domestic high-cost aluminum ingot manufacturers. SunSirs analyst expects that in May it will oscillate within the range of 12,500-13,500 yuan / ton.

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