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SunSirs: Costs Went Down and The Ethylene External Disk Market Fell in April
April 29 2020 13:36:16SunSirs(John)

Price trend

According to SunSir’s data, the external price of ethylene in April showed a downward trend. The average ethylene price on the 1st was 517.50 US dollars/ton, and the price on the 16th was 346.00 US dollars/ton, a 33.14% decline. The current price fell 66.25% year-on-year.


Analysis review   

Product: Ethylene fell overall in April. The price of the ethylene market in Asia fell sharply. As of the 27th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at 350-360 US dollars/ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at 325-335 US dollars/ton. The price of the European ethylene market fell. As of the 27th, the price of the European ethylene market closed at 373-386 US dollars/ton for FD Northwest Europe, and closed at 314-325 US dollars/ton for CIF Northwest Europe. Ethylene prices in the United States fell, and as of the 27th, the price was 187-199 US dollars/ton. Overall: In April, the European, American and Asian ethylene markets continued to decline, and the entire ethylene market transaction list, prices continued to refresh the lowest point. Industry players pay more attention to the supply and demand situation after the holiday.

Industrial chain: International: On April 27, the price of the US WTI crude oil futures market plummeted, and the main contract settlement price was reported at 12.78 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.16 US dollars or 24.6%. The price of the Brent crude oil futures market also fell sharply, with the main contract settlement price reported at 23.07 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.80 US dollars or 7.25%. The price of ethylene could not play a supporting role. Throughout April, the oil price continued to refresh the lowest price, and even fell to a negative number, so that the ethylene external disk market continued to fall, the demand of the entire industry was insufficient, and the ethylene market constantly updated the lowest price. After the downstream styrene price fell, it stabilized temporarily, and the ethanol market remained temporarily stable, but still could not support the ethylene price. The ethylene price fell all the way, and the decline continued.


Market outlook

Ethylene analysts of SunSirs believe that the recent global crude oil inventories have risen sharply, and the pressure on storage capacity will only become more and more serious. The problem on the demand side is the most critical factor that currently restricts oil prices. In the second quarter, oil prices may remain at a very low level, unable to support ethylene prices, so SunSirs analysts expect ethylene prices will continue to decline within a narrow range.


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