Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the external price of ethylene has fallen recently. The average ethylene price on the 7th was 468.00 US dollars/ton, which was 6.96% lower than the 6th price of 503.00 US dollars/ton. The current price fell 55.22% year-on-year.

Analysis review   

Product: Recently, ethylene has shown a downward trend overall. The ethylene market price in Asia fell sharply. As of the 7th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at 375-385 US dollars/ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at 405-415 US dollars/ton. The price of the European ethylene market fell, and as of the 19th, the price of the European ethylene market closed at 570-580 US dollars/ton for FD Northwest Europe, and closed at 503-511 US dollars/ton for CIF Northwest Europe. Ethylene prices in the U.S. region have fallen, as of the 19th, the price was 167-185 US dollars/ton. Overall: Recently, the ethylene market in Europe, America and Asia is in a downward trend, constantly refreshing the lowest point, and the overall ethylene market has been falling. Industry players pay more attention to the supply and demand situation after the holiday.

Industrial chain: International aspect: on April 7, the settlement price of West Texas light oil futures on the New York Mercantile futures exchange in May 2020 was 23.63 US dollars per barrel, down 2.45 US dollars or 9.4% from the previous trading day; Brent crude oil on the London Intercontinental Exchange settled at 31.87 US dollars a barrel in June 2020, down 1.18 US dollars or 3.6% from the previous trading day. The overseas epidemic situation is on the rise, and there is no sign of production reduction in Saudi Arabia and Russia. The international crude oil market is under pressure. At the same time, with the resumption of domestic refineries, the supply of refined oil increases. The market price of refined oil is under the double pressure of cost and supply. In the near future, the price of refined oil is running at a low level. Unable to play a supporting role in the price of ethylene, the external market of ethylene fell again, especially the price of ethylene in Asia fell sharply on May 7, falling to an unprecedented position. The price of downstream styrene rebounded and the ethyl alcohol market fell to the lowest level and then consolidated, which played a small role in supporting the price of ethylene, and the price of ethylene fell sharply.

Market outlook

Ethylene analysts of SunSirs believe that the public health incidents in foreign countries are becoming more and more serious, and the demand for oil has dropped sharply, which may trigger a sharp contraction in economic activity and cannot provide support for ethylene prices. Therefore, SunSirs analysts expect that ethylene prices will continue to decline within a narrow range.

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