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SunSirs: Terminal Was Blocked Ethylene Glycol Continued to Fall (March 23-27)
March 30 2020 11:18:43SunSirs(John)

Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, on March 27, the average ex-factory price of oil-based ethylene glycol in North China was 3,633 RMB/ton, down 8.40% from last Friday. On March 26, the price of a single large-scale ethylene glycol release in East China was 3,220 RMB/ton, down 390 RMB/ton from last weekend, a drop of 10.80%.

 

Analysis review   

As of March 26, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the mainstream reservoir areas of East China was about 1.0454 million tons, an increase of 67,100 tons from last Thursday, an increase of 6.80%, and an increase of 44,000 tons from this Monday, an increase of 4.35%, and the inventory continued to rise.

In terms of shipments, the average daily shipment of Zhangjiagang's main port this week was about 45,500 tons, and the average daily shipment of two warehouses to Taicang was about 34,400 tons, which remained at a low level.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 69%, and the operating rate of downstream polyester is about 82%, which is similar to last week.

In terms of equipment, the large-scale reduction of domestic ethylene glycol equipment has not yet been implemented. In April, only Henan Puyang, CNOOC Shell, and Tianjin Petrochemical had three forecast repairs. The estimated loss was 41,100 tons. And this year, Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical are expected to produce about 100,000 tons per month. The supply of ethylene glycol has increased.

 

Market outlook

Although crude oil prices continued to rise in the early part of this week, due to market confidence, the price of ethylene glycol continued to fall, but the decline was slightly slower. Until March 26, crude oil plummeted again. On March 27, after the opening of the ethylene glycol futures market, it went down all the way, and the trend was irreversible.

Global public health events are intensifying and there is no sign of improvement in the short term. Due to the cancellation of overseas orders, terminal exports are blocked, and consumption is slow, it is expected that ethylene glycol inventories will soon reach the same period last year. In this environment, oil and coal-based ethylene glycol manufacturers have recently repeatedly lowered their ex-factory prices. Domestic and foreign difficulties, and the cost side is not supported, the recent ethylene glycol price is difficult to gain momentum.

 

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