1. Price trend
According to SunSirs data, as of March 19, the average price of n-butanol was 4,867 yuan/ton (both tax included). The current reference average price has fallen compared to the previous day (the reference price on March 18 was 5003 yuan/ton) 136 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.7%. Compared with a week ago (the reference price on March 12 was 5,283 yuan / ton), it fell by 416 yuan / ton, a drop of 7.89%. Compared with the beginning of this month (the reference price on March 1 was 5467 yuan / ton), it has fallen by 600 yuan/ton, and the decline has reached 10.98%.
2. Market analysis
Product: Starting from January 2020, the market price of n-butanol has always been sluggish. It has fallen all the way from a high of 6,000 yuan/ton in January. The current average factory reference price has fallen below the 5,000 yuan/ton mark. Compared with January, The decline has exceeded 1,000 yuan/ton. This week, the domestic n-butanol market is operating weakly, with a lower center of gravity and general market transactions. I heard that the purchase price of actual downstream orders is slightly lower. The raw material users are mainly digesting inventories. Due to the fall in crude oil, the mentality of the industry has been frustrated. The downstream purchase of raw materials has further slowed down. On the 19th, due to the decline of the upstream raw material propylene, the cost of n-butanol was under heavy pressure, and the price fell sharply. At present, n-butanol is operating weakly in South China. The average factory reference price is around 5200 yuan/ton; Wanhua Chemical's ex-factory quotation for n-butanol in North China was 5,000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton during the week, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week; Luxi Chemical's ex-factory quotation for n-butanol was 5,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 within the week. RMB/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week; Shandong Lihuayi's n-butanol ex-factory quotation refers to 4,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton during the week; a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week.
Industrial chain: On March 18, the price of propylene in Shandong still fell. In March, the price of propylene in Shandong changed from the previous downward trend. On the 1st, the prices of some enterprises rebounded slightly. On the 2nd, the prices rose slightly across the board. On the 3rd and 4th, most companies generally increased. On the 5th, the prices of some enterprises were 50 ~ 100 yuan. The price increased by about RMB / ton on the 6th, but the price fluctuated slightly on the 6th, but the magnitude was small. On the 10th, the price generally fell by 50 ~ 100 yuan/ton, on the 11th, the price fell slightly by 50 yuan/ton, and on the 12th, the price fell by 50 ~ 100. The price fell by 200 to 300 yuan per ton on the 13th, and the price dropped again on Saturday and Sunday. The price remained stable on the 16th, and the prices continued to decline on the 17th and 18th. The current market turnover was 5750-6300 yuan/ton. The mainstream price was 5750~5800 yuan/ton. Affected by the OPEC meeting and various international economic policies, international crude oil rose sharply; prices fell sharply again on the 16th, and fell slightly on the 17th. Because the previous production and inventory of propylene are low, the decline in the early period is not significant, and the trend of subsequent decline is also more obvious. It is expected that the price of propylene may be affected by crude oil in the later period or may remain stable in the short term.
3. Market Forecast
SunSirs n-butanol analysts believe that due to the impact of the cost of n-butanol, it is expected that the decline in the n-butanol market will be suspended recently. Specific market needs to pay more attention to the trend of upstream raw materials and downstream supply and demand.
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