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SunSirs: Crude Oil Weakened & Ethylene Glycol Prices Continued to Fall This Week (March 9-13)
March 16 2020 11:31:33SunSirs(John)

Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, on March 13, the average ex-factory price of oil-based ethylene glycol in North China was 4,033 RMB/ton, down 9.02% from last Friday.

On March 12, the price of a single large-scale ethylene glycol out of East China was 3,917.5 RMB/ton, down 207.5 RMB/ton from last weekend.


Analysis review   

As of March 12, ethylene glycol inventories in East China ’s mainstream reservoir areas were approximately 0.9064 million tons, an increase of 90,100 tons from last Thursday, an increase of 11.04%;Compared with this Monday, it increased by 44,600 tons, an increase of 5.18%, and continued to accumulate stocks.

In terms of shipments, the average daily shipment of the main port of Zhangjiagang this week was 50,400 tons, and the average daily shipment of the two main warehouses in Taicang was 0.38 million tons, with slow shipments.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 66%, and the operating rate of downstream polyester is about 70%, which are both at a relatively low level in the same period.

In terms of installations, Xinjiang Tianying's annual production capacity of 150,000 tons of ethylene glycol equipment is about 80%; Xinhang Energy's annual production capacity of 360,000 tons of ethylene glycol equipment is gradually increasing; Luoyang Yongjin Chemical's 200,000 tons of ethylene glycol plant is currently in a shutdown state; Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical's 400,000 tons of ethylene glycol plant has been restarted a few days ago.


Market outlook

Affected by escalating public health events, crude oil prices have experienced an unprecedented plunge. The cost of imported sources has been lowered, so the spot and futures prices of ethylene glycol have fallen sharply again.

In addition, as public health events have developed into a global epidemic, the international economy has been affected, and weakening market demand has caused chemical prices to decline. The proportion of ethylene glycol terminal textile exports is relatively high. Due to the poor follow-up of the international market, textile exports will be greatly affected. As a result, polyester production and sales are not strong, and ethylene glycol is therefore consumed slowly.

Therefore, although the spot and futures prices of ethylene glycol have rebounded after the recent plunge, due to the accumulation of inventory and poor shipments, they are still on the decline.


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