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SunSirs: Crude oil plummeted, butanol prices fell
March 12 2020 13:39:59SunSirs(Molly)

1. Price Trend

According to SunSirs data, as of March 12, the average price of n-butanol was 5,283.33 yuan / ton (both tax included). Compared with the beginning of this month (March 1), the current reference average price has fallen by 183 yuan / ton, a decrease 3.44%.

2. Market Analysis

Product: From the beginning of March to the last weekend, the domestic n-butanol market is mainly vulnerable to stable and stable operation. On the 9th and 10th, due to the plunge of the crude oil market, the market mentality is biased and the atmosphere in the market is strong. In addition, the price of raw material propylene is weakly lowered. At the beginning, the mainstream price trend of n-butanol was weak, and the price dropped slightly. At present, the market supply is relatively sufficient. Downstream customers just need to purchase mainly, and the industry is actively shipping. However, the downstream demand side has not improved much, and the raw material inventory is mainly the market. There are not many new orders to negotiate, and the overall transaction is limited. At present, the n-butanol market in South China is consolidating. The market offer is 5400-5450 yuan / ton. The small orders are closed, and some large orders are negotiated at slightly lower prices. The Shandong n-butanol market is lowered and the offer is 5250-5400 yuan / ton. High-end transactions were not smooth. Some factories have issued pre-orders, and there are not many new orders to discuss; PetroChina's northeast n-butanol offers a stable offer of 5300 yuan / ton. The Jihua plant started 60%, and the Daqing plant was operating normally; Qilu Petrochemical's n-butanol product was stable and executed at 5,400 yuan / ton. The normal production of n-butanol plant is moderate, the inventory is moderate; the ex-factory price of Wanhua Chemical's n-butanol is quoted at 5400 yuan / ton in North China, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than last week; the ex-factory price of Luxi Chemical's n-butanol is 5300 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the week, it is lowered by 100 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: On March 11, the price of propylene in Shandong area fluctuated slightly. In March, the price of propylene in Shandong changed from the previous downward trend. On the 1st, the prices of some enterprises rebounded slightly. On the 2nd, the prices rose slightly across the board. On the 3rd and 4th, most companies generally increased. On the 5th, the prices of some enterprises were 50 ~ 100 yuan. The price has increased by about RMB / ton since the 6th, but the price has fluctuated slightly, but the price has generally fallen by 50 ~ 100 yuan / ton on the 10th. Today the price has fluctuated slightly, and the mainstream price has been reduced by about RMB 50 / ton. At 6500 ~ 6800 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is 6500 yuan / ton. A few days ago, affected by the OPEC meeting, international crude oil plummeted. Affected by the stimulus plan hopes and US producers to cut spending today, US oil jumped another 8%. And because the propylene factory's output and inventory are low, the market supply is not abundant, so the propylene market has been less declining before, and it is up and down today. It is expected that the price of propylene may remain stable for a short period of time, and the market outlook may be greatly affected by crude oil.

3. Market Forecast

SunSirs data analyst's analysis believes that the current n-butanol market is affected by the sharp decline in crude oil and the downstream demand is average.

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