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SunSirs: N-butanol Starts Stable in March Due to Cost Support
March 06 2020 11:06:25SunSirs(John)

Price trend

According to the data of Sunirs, as of March 5, the average price of n-butanol was 5,466.67 RMB/ton (both tax included). The current reference average price was basically flat compared with the end of February (February 29). The n-butanol (industrial-grade) commodity index on March 4 was 44.57, which was the same as the previous day, and was 55.43% lower than the highest point of the cycle at 100.00 points (2011-10-08) and 49.11% higher than the lowest point of the cycle at 29.89 points on November 30, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)


Analysis review   

Product: Since the end of February and the beginning of March, the domestic n-butanol market has been operating steadily for the time being, and the n-butanol market has a fair trading atmosphere. Downstream users have gradually started to work, replenished at dips, and reduced factory inventory. The current market volume in March is not significantly higher than that at the end of February. New orders are in general discussion, and the atmosphere is flat. The prices of core users supplied by mainstream factories are slightly lower, and the downstream raw material inventory is slowly digested. The market is under high pressure for high-price offers. As of March 5th, the n-butanol market activity atmosphere is average, supported by costs, and the market is mainly organized and operated smoothly. Luxi Chemical's offer for n-butanol is temporarily stable, with a reference price of around 5,500 RMB/ton. Shandong Lihuayi's n-butanol ex-factory price is temporarily stable, reference is around 5,300 RMB/ton; Wanhua Chemical's n-butanol ex-factory price is 5,500 yuan / t in North China, 5,700 yuan / t in East China, 5,850 RMB/ton in South China.

Supply Chain: In March, the price of propylene in Shandong changed from the previous downward trend. On the 1st, the prices of some enterprises rebounded slightly. On the 2nd, the prices rose slightly across the board. On the 3rd, most companies generally increased, and on the 4th, the prices also ranged from 50 to 100 RMB/ton. The current market turnover is 6,600 ~ 6,700 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price is around 6,600 RMB/ton. Crude oil and PP futures are rising, and tight supplies have made downstream procurement active. However, the production and inventory of propylene plants are low and the market is in short supply. It is expected that propylene prices may rise.


Market outlook

The data analyst of SunSirs believes that at present, there is limited negotiation on the high price of the n-butanol market. It is expected that the low-end consolidation of the market will be the main operation in the short term.


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