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SunSirs: Toluene Turned to Fell This Week (February 24-March 1)
March 02 2020 14:22:32SunSIrs(John)

Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the domestic toluene market fell slightly this week. As of Friday, it was 0.6% lower than last week.


Analysis review   

Product: Affected by the continued spread of the epidemic, worried about the shrinking demand for crude oil, the international crude oil price fell sharply this week, and the price of toluene in the Korean market plummeted. Although domestic companies have gradually entered the resumption period and market demand has gradually improved, domestic toluene prices have continued to decline. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 4,950 RMB/ton.

Industry chain: Upstream, in terms of crude oil, international oil prices have fallen sharply this week. As of Friday, spot Brent fell 10.76%, Brent futures fell 10.92%, WTI futures fell 11.41%, and Dubai futures fell 10.27%.

On the downstream side, in terms of TDI, the Toluene TDI currently has an FOB ARA of about US $615/ton, and domestic goods with a ticket out of the warehouse are quoted at 10,500-11,000 RMB/ton. Due to the slower recovery of downstream demand, it is expected that the TDI market next week or will stop falling and stabilize. As for the PX market, domestic Sinopec companies are listed at about 6,300 RMB/ton this week. The latest external prices are about US $ 670/ton FOB Korea and US $ 688/ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market price will stop falling and stabilize next week.


Market outlook

Toluene analyst of SunSirs believe that in next week, it is necessary to continue to focus on the trend of crude oil and the progress of downstream enterprises' resumption. On the whole, it is expected that the price of isomeric xylene in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will stop falling and recover next week. In addition, domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period, and the market demand will gradually improve. Under the expectation, the price of toluene in the domestic market next week will be in shock and rebound trend.


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