The current round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on November 7th, and the retail price of refined oil may be lowered according to the mechanism. The 2023 retail price adjustment has gone through "ten increases, eight falls, and three strandings". During the cycle, the crude oil market trend has declined, and the rate of change remains negative. The retail price of domestic refined oil may fall three times in a row.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend has declined. As of the 6th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $80.82 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $85.18 per barrel. On the one hand, the supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has eased and has not affected the supply of crude oil to neighboring countries, resulting in negative news for the crude oil market; On the other hand, the peak oil season in North America and Europe has ended, leading to a decline in demand, suppressing the crude oil market; Finally, the growth rate of the US economy in the third quarter was the fastest in nearly two years, raising market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time. Negative factors have led to a decline in international oil prices during this cycle. As of the 7th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was -3.21%. It is expected that gasoline will be reduced by 140 RMB/ton, diesel will be reduced by 135 RMB per ton, and the price will be increased by 92# 0.11 RMB, 95# 0.12 RMB, and 0# 0.12 RMB, This round of retail prices of refined oil products welcomes the "ninth" downward adjustment within the year.
In terms of gasoline, the operating load of refineries nationwide is over 70%, and the utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum capacity in Chinese refineries remains at a high level. The operating rate of refineries in Shandong is around 63%. Although the operating rate of refineries in Shandong has slightly decreased, overall, the supply of refined oil products in Shandong is relatively loose. In addition, the cost support is insufficient, and there is no holiday support in the short term. The frequency of self driving and driving radius have decreased, resulting in a decrease in gasoline demand, Some businesses are moderately restocking on dips, and purchasing sentiment is not positive, resulting in a decline in gasoline prices.
In terms of diesel: The supply of diesel is relatively loose, while the trend of crude oil on the cost side has declined. In the early stage, high oil prices have limited transactions, and the bearish atmosphere in the later stage has led to a decline in diesel market prices. However, there is still support for diesel demand, with outdoor infrastructure, engineering and other construction projects maintaining high levels. The demand for offshore fishing and agriculture has supported, and the decline in the diesel market has been relatively small.
Looking at the future market, short-term mainland factors are still the main factor affecting oil prices, and there has been little change in crude oil supply. Recently, US crude oil inventories have also been at historically low levels, but high US interest rates will continue to restrain oil prices to some extent. Overall, crude oil prices fluctuate between regions. In terms of domestic supply, the operating rate of local refineries remains high, and the supply is relatively loose. There is a lack of demand support for gasoline, and there may still be a slight downward trend in the later stage; There is still demand support for diesel, and it is expected that the diesel market may fluctuate.
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