International crude oil prices have recently shown an upward trend, with geopolitical factors being particularly significant drivers. The ongoing tensions in Venezuela have raised concerns about supply stability, pushing international oil prices to five consecutive days of gains. Brent crude futures are fluctuating but approaching the $62/barrel range, while WTI crude has stabilized around the $58/barrel mark. From a news perspective, the continued release of geopolitical risk premiums provides potential cost support for the domestic refined oil market.

Affected by the sustained low levels of international oil prices in the previous period, the downward trend in domestic refined oil prices could not be reversed, resulting in a retail price reduction.  According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of the second working day of December 24th, the average price of benchmark crude oil was $60.21 per barrel, with a change rate of 2.05%, corresponding to a potential increase of 90 RMB/ton in domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices. According to the "ten working days" principle, the next price adjustment window will be at 24:00 on January 6th. The new round of price change rate is extending into the positive range. Due to OPEC+ suspending production increases from January 2026, coupled with the peak demand during the Christmas season in Europe and the US and seasonal support from cold weather, international oil prices are expected to gain some upward momentum. This will provide strong support for domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale prices, making an upward adjustment in the next refined oil price adjustment highly probable.

Recently, the domestic gasoline and diesel market has shown a dynamic of "positive support from the international market but pressure from weak domestic demand," with overall prices remaining stable or slightly increasing, but the market's buying and selling atmosphere has remained subdued. Despite support from international crude oil costs, the lack of strong end-user demand has significantly limited upward price momentum. Most companies have opted to maintain stable prices, with only a few regions experiencing slight increases due to tight supply. The weak demand is the key factor limiting market growth. In northern regions, as winter sets in, outdoor construction and mining projects are gradually shutting down, leading to a seasonal decline in diesel consumption, while the increased demand from accelerated construction projects in the south provides only limited support. Regarding gasoline demand, the current period remains a low season for consumption.  Aside from a slight improvement in travel demand due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday, daily commuting and business travel remain stable, with no concentrated surge in consumption. The downstream market exhibits a "replenish as needed, cautious wait-and-see" mentality.  Influenced by the uncertainty of future price trends, traders and end-users are reluctant to make large-scale purchases, instead adopting a strategy of "small quantities, frequent purchases," which makes it difficult for overall market transactions to improve significantly. In response to the sluggish market conditions, major suppliers and refineries have adopted more flexible trading policies, but these measures have failed to fundamentally change the market difficulties caused by weak demand.  The current pattern of subdued buying and selling is unlikely to change significantly in the short term. 

Looking ahead, the domestic gasoline and diesel market is expected to remain in a state of supply-demand equilibrium. Internationally, easing concerns about the economic outlook are supporting oil prices. Furthermore, investor concerns about the geopolitical situation in Venezuela continue to support oil prices, and positive news developments are providing cost support for the domestic market. Domestically, with the approaching New Year and Spring Festival holidays, demand for transportation and logistics will gradually recover, and end-user restocking demand may see a slight increase; however, domestic refinery operating rates are expected to remain stable, and the abundant supply situation will not change. In the short term, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend. The market buying and selling atmosphere is expected to improve marginally with the release of holiday demand, but the overall recovery may be limited.

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