The current domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on September 6th, and the retail price of refined oil will not be adjusted. The 2023 retail price adjustment has gone through "nine increases, six falls, and two stalls". During the cycle, the crude oil market price first fell and then rose, and the change rate changed from negative to positive. It did not exceed the red line of 50 RMB/ton, and will not be adjusted in the stranded range.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international crude oil market fell first and then rose. As of the 6th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $86.69 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $90.04 per barrel. During this price adjustment cycle, the international oil market has been intertwined with long and short positions, and at the beginning of this cycle, economic data is generally biased towards short positions. A series of unexpected macro data has raised concerns in the market about future energy demand, becoming a constraint on energy demand. At the same time, whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the future depends on whether the subsequent inflation and employment data can continue to decline. The expectation of raising interest rates is also an important factor in suppressing oil prices, and the trend of the crude oil market has declined. Rumors of extended production cuts in OPEC+, a later oil producing country, suggest that Saudi Arabia's additional 1 million barrels of production cuts will continue until December, while Russia's crude oil production cuts will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply, which is a positive factor supporting international oil prices. The combination of long and short factors has led to a decline in crude oil prices during this cycle, followed by an increase. As of the 6th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 0.58%, and it is expected to increase by 30 RMB/ton, failing to reach the adjustment red line of 50 RMB per ton. This round of retail prices for refined oil products is facing the "third" run aground this year.
In terms of gasoline: Recently, some merchants have a decent restocking mentality, and their main external procurement has increased. Refinery inventory has remained low, and with the temperature falling, private car travel has decreased to a certain extent. However, supported by the upcoming Double Festival in the later period, some manufacturers may stock up in advance, coupled with cost support, the gasoline market remains at a high level; The operating rate of domestic main refineries remains at a high level, and the supply side is relatively loose, which to some extent suppresses gasoline prices. The combination of long and short factors has led to high and fluctuating gasoline market conditions.
In terms of diesel: The recent price trend in the diesel market is relatively strong. On the one hand, crude oil cost support still exists, which is beneficial for the domestic refined oil market. On the other hand, the third batch of export quotas for Chinese refined oil has finally been implemented, and domestic refined oil export control has further loosened. Under the stimulation of high profits, the enthusiasm of finished oil export units has increased, especially in the case of diesel or additional demand. Finally, the high temperature weather gradually subsided, and the workload of outdoor infrastructure projects and other industries gradually increased. In addition, with the end of the fishing season, diesel demand slowly recovered, and an increase in demand still provides support for the domestic diesel market. The price increase in the domestic diesel market is the main factor.
In the future, the game between supply and demand sides will intensify in the short term, and international oil prices will still fluctuate in a wide range. In terms of domestic supply, the operating rate of local refineries remains high, and the supply is relatively loose. In terms of demand, the use of oil for automotive air conditioners may be slightly reduced. However, some of peak season operators may replenish their inventory in advance, which will support gasoline demand and maintain high gasoline market prices in the later stage; In terms of diesel, the operating rate of outdoor operations is gradually increasing, the fishing season in coastal areas is ending, and diesel demand is recovering, supporting domestic diesel prices. The trend of the diesel market is rising, but wholesale prices are infinitely close to retail prices, which will to some extent suppress the increase in diesel.
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