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SunSirs: PTA and Zhengzhou Cotton Declined by Their Daily Limits
February 04 2020 10:44:19SunSirs(Linda)

Affected by the risk aversion sentiment of epidemic prevention and control, the first trading day after the Spring Festival was dominated by the decline in the opening of domestic futures market, while the main contracts of PTA and Zhengzhou cotton fell and stopped. The closing price of PTA main contract was 4,470 yuan/ton, down 338 yuan/ton, or 7.03% compared with the previous trading day; the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton was 12,565 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton, or 7.03% compared with the previous trading day.

Specifically, cotton textile market showed ice cotton futures fell 2.7% in the past week. As investors are worried that the epidemic will hurt China's demand for cotton, on January 31, ice settled at 67.50 cents per pound in March and 68.31 cents per pound in May. Investors are not optimistic about the short-term market. After the domestic Spring Festival, cotton prices closely follow the international market. Investors are more worried about the delay of construction and the decline of market demand. On February 3, the spot price of domestic lint was 13,597 yuan/ton, down 307 yuan/ton in a single day. Analysts from SunSirs expect that lint will continue to be weak in the near future.

In the chemical fiber market, the average price of PTA spot market is 4,741 yuan/ton, down 2.96% compared with the previous trading day, 27.98% year on year. The market's worries about the future macro-economy and the delay of the downstream weaving enterprises' return to work have pushed down the PTA price. In addition, the PTA unit load is relatively high and is in the stage of accumulation. In the downstream polyester market, the price of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable temporarily. SunSirs analysts believe that after the Lantern Festival, terminal demand recovers slowly, but PTA starts to work stably, and PTA market will face greater stock accumulation pressure in the short term. At the same time, the price of oil outside the holiday falls sharply, the cost end support collapses, and there is a possibility of further decline in the short term.

Overall, the textile market will continue the off-season, which is expected to be at least one week later than the resumption of construction in previous years. Textile enterprises may have the phenomenon of reduced orders and insufficient operating rate after the start of construction. The production time of traditional textile peak season may be squeezed, and the direct impact on the textile market will be strengthened. After the festival, a wave of decline in the textile raw material market is inevitable. However, with the improvement of demand, it is expected that the market will usher in an upward turning point in late February.

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