Aluminum trend
Since December 19, 2019, the average price of domestic spot aluminum ingots has been on the front line of 14,400, the price of spot aluminum ingots has been fluctuating at a high level, with an operating range of 14,450-14,600RMB/ton.
This week, the price of aluminum ingots was in the ‘V’ shape. At the beginning of the week, the price of aluminum ingots fell for three consecutive days, and the price of spot aluminum ingots broke through the line of 14,200, then rose for two consecutive days, returning to the shock range.
According to the data of SunSirs, as of January 17, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 14,566.67RMB/ton, up 0.23% compared with the average market price of 14,533.33RMB/ton last weekend (January 10).
Relative important news
1. Shanghai aluminum 2001 gradually entered the delivery period, and the contract of Shanghai aluminum 2001 was crowded in the early stage of stock accumulation.
2. China and the United States have completed the first stage of economic and trade agreements, and the macro environment has stabilized.
3. The National Bureau of Statistics announced on January 17 that China's output of ten non-ferrous metals in December was 5.31 million tons, an increase of 4.7% year on year; the total output in 2019 was 58.42 million tons, an increase of 3.5% year on year. In December, the output of raw aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) was 3.04 million tons, down 0.7% year on year; in 2019, the total output was 35.04 million tons, down 0.9% year on year.
Expected market outlook
As the Spring Festival is approaching, some small terminals in China are going into the phase of shutdown and holiday. It is expected that the social inventory of aluminum ingots will rise slightly. According to the historical price trend, the Spring Festival effect will not have large impact on the whole, and it is expected that the operation will be dominated in the near future within the shock range.
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