Price trend of phosphate rock in 2022
According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of December 31, 2023, the reference price of 30% grade phosphate rock in mainstream areas in China was around 1,056 RMB/ton, and the price rose by 366 RMB/ton, or 53.04%, compared with that of January 1 (the ex-factory price of phosphate rock was 690 RMB/ton).
The influencing factors of phosphate rock market in 2022 mainly include the following two aspects:
As a non-renewable resource, the scarcity of phosphate rock has become more prominent in the past two years with years of continuous mining. The domestic medium and high-end grade phosphate rock is becoming less and less, and the development cycle of phosphate rock is longer. In addition, under the national environmental protection policy in recent years, the difficulty of phosphate rock mining has increased, and the domestic supply of medium and high-end grade phosphate rock continues to tighten.
From the trend chart of the national phosphate rock production from 2016 to 2021, it can be seen that from 2016 to 2020, China's phosphate rock production showed a continuous decline, from 144.39 million tons in 2016 to 88.93 million tons in 2020. The phosphate rock production increased in 2021, and 102.89 million tons in 2021, up about 15.2% from 2020.
It can be seen from the national phosphate rock output chart from January to November 2022 that the cumulative output of phosphate rock from January to November 2022 was 95.04 million tons, up 2.3% year on year. Although the national output of phosphate rock increased from 2021 to 2022, the overall supply of phosphate rock remained tight in 2022 in the face of the booming downstream demand this year.
In the past two years, the downstream demand of phosphate rock was more extensive, including agricultural fertilizer, fine chemicals, and the production of new energy batteries. With the continuous increase of the cumulative consumption of phosphorus resources, the domestic stock of medium-high grade phosphate rock has been declining year by year. With the strong demand in agriculture and new energy vehicles, the phosphate rock market is expected to be in short supply for a long time. Therefore, in 2022, the sharp rise of domestic phosphate rock market was mainly due to the joint support of supply and demand.
Future market analysis and outlook for 2023
The year 2022 has passed, and the spring of 2023 is coming to us. Near the end of the Spring Festival in 2023, some mining areas have stopped mining, and the supply of phosphate rock is still tight. The supply and demand side has not changed much, and the news side is relatively quiet. It is expected that in the period before the Spring Festival of 2023, the domestic phosphate rock market will mainly be in high consolidation operation. After the Spring Festival in 2023, when the downstream demand of the market is stable, the phosphate rock market will continue to operate at a high level; In the future, the supply side of domestic phosphate rock will continue to be in a tense state.
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