SunSirs: The Price of China Refined Naphtha continued to Decline Last Week

As of November 27, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha mainstream was 7,874.75 RMB/ ton, down 3.02% from 8,119.75 RMB/ ton on November 21. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 7,600-8,000 RMB/ ton.

As of November 27, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 7,554.00 RMB/ ton, down 2.33% from 7,734.00 RMB/ ton on November 21. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was about 7,500-7,700 RMB/ ton.

On November 27, the naphtha commodity index was 97.19, unchanged from the previous day, down 20.10% from the peak of 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle, and up 130.09% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

The price of refined naphtha fell last week, and there was no obvious advantage in terminal ethylene and reforming. It was mainly purchased on demand, logistics was blocked in many places across the country, refineries reduced prices and shipped, and the market was mainly wait-and-see.

Upstream: International crude oil prices fell in shock. The inventory data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday was negative, and the inventory of refined oil increased more than expected. It was also reported that the Group of Seven considered that the price limit of Russian seaborne oil was higher than the price ceiling of the current market level, and the supply tightening concerns eased. Western countries have not reached an agreement on the upper limit of Russian oil price; The oil price continues to be under pressure due to overlapping demand concerns.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of toluene fell last week. On November 27, it was 7,350 RMB/ ton, and on November 21, it was 7,440 RMB/ ton, down 1.21%. The price of mixed xylene fell last week. On November 27, the price was 7,840 RMB/ ton, and on November 21, the price was 8,100 RMB/ ton, down 3.21% from last week. In terms of PX market, the price trend of last week was temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8,600 RMB/ ton, which was unchanged from the price of 8,600 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week.

SunSirs energy analysts believe that the international crude oil price fell in shock last week, and the cost support of the naphtha market is limited; There is no obvious advantage in terminal ethylene and reforming, and the procurement is mainly on demand. Logistics in many places across the country is blocked, refineries are active in shipping, and businesses are in a strong wait-and-see mood, and transactions are cautious. It is expected that China local refining naphtha will continue to decline in the near future.

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