SunSirs: Demand Was Poor, Cost Was Falling, Polyester Staple Fiber Market Continued Weakness

Price trend

Spot price: spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber continued to fall this week (11.21-11.25). According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7,462 RMB/ton November 25, down 1.19% from Monday and up 2.90% from the same period last year.

Futures market: the main force of polyester staple fiber futures ended lower in shock this week. The main contract of polyester staple fiber PF futures closed at 6,634 RMB/ton on Friday, 4.90% lower than the closing price last week. The settlement price was 6,620 RMB/ton. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 4.64% and closed at 5,138 RMB/ton while the main ethylene glycol futures rose 1.32% and closed at 3,928 RMB/ton.

Analysis review    

Concern about the weak prospect of crude oil demand in the future and the continuous interest rate increase in the United States, it is rumored that OPEC+ may discussed increasing crude oil production. EIA data showed that the growth of U.S. distillate oil and gasoline inventories last week exceeded expectations, and oil prices were depressed this week. The main force of US oil futures fell 2.29% to close near US dollars 78.4 per barrel (as of 15:15 on the 25th Beijing time).

The fall in crude oil price had weakened the support for PTA cost. PTA's new production capacity was about to be tested, and the accumulated storage was expected to rise. The high inventory of the downstream polyester factories did not change, and the large factories may jointly reduce production. The demand was poor, and the PTA price maintained a downward pattern this week.

The falling crude oil price had weakened the support for ethylene glycol cost, and the downstream demand has remained sluggish. However, due to the impact of poor efficiency, the unplanned maintenance of ethylene glycol had increased recently, and the operating rate remained low. In the case of a large decline in the previous period, the price of ethylene glycol was also at a relatively low level. Ethylene glycol futures prices rebounded slightly this week.

The stocks of staple fiber manufacturers continued to increase this week, and some large factories reduced production. The orders of downstream yarn mills and weaving mills were not good, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was declining, the demand for raw materials continued to be weak, most of them remained the purchases on demand. The production and sales of staple fiber remained depressed, and the price continued to fall. This week, the prices of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn remained weak, and the sales were light. The purchase was just in needed, and the negotiation focuses on the shipment. The overall de stocking was slow.

Market outlook

In the future, the center of gravity of polyester staple fiber raw material cost has moved down, the downstream off-season characteristics are obvious, and the demand continues to be weak. It is expected that after December, the phenomenon of textile enterprises giving annual leave in advance will further increase, and the staple fiber may continue to accumulate. The price of polyester staple fiber may still be weak in the short term. Pay attention to raw material price trend, plant dynamics and downstream orders.

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