SunSirs: Domestic Light Rare Earth Market Was Weak

Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price index of the domestic rare earth market fell slightly, and the domestic rare earth market was weak and hard to change. On November 14, the rare earth index was 628 points, unchanged from the previous day, 37.64% lower than the peak of 1,007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and 131.73% higher than the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

Analysis review

The prices of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have declined to varying degrees. As of the 15th, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal was 785,000 RMB/ton, down 0.63% from the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 642,500 RMB/ton, with a half month price drop of 0.39%; The price of neodymium oxide was 715,000 RMB/ton, down 2.72%; The price of neodymium metal was 905,000 RMB/ton, down 0.55%; The price of praseodymium metal was 905,000 RMB/ton, a half month drop of 4.23%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 665,000 RMB/ton, down 8.28%.

The circulation of light rare earths in China has decreased, the inventory of enterprises was overstocked, and the downstream inquires was cold. The procurement was poor, and the market situation of light rare earths was weak. The circulation of light rare earths in China has decreased, the inventory of enterprises was overstocked, and the downstream inquiry list was cold. The procurement was poor, and the market situation of light rare earths was weak. Recently, the inventory of downstream businesses still existed, and some manufacturers mainly digested the inventory. The purchasing mood was not good, resulting in the scarcity of orders, the difficulty for dealers to ship, and the rare earth market had declined slightly.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is fair. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China reached 2.599 million and 2.505 million respectively in October 2022, with year-on-year growth of 11.1% and 6.9%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 762,000 and 714,000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 87.6% and 81.7%, and the market share reached 28.5%. The production and sales of automobiles rose, the demand in the new energy field still had support, and the decline in the domestic rare earth market was limited.

Market outlook

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earths are in sustainable development. In the short term, the epidemic situation in some regions repeated, the downstream procurement was limited, and the orders of magnetic material manufacturers were poor. The downstream businesses mainly digested the inventory. SunSirs’ analysts expect that the rare earth market is weak and hard to change. In the long run, the demand for rare earth is still guaranteed, and there is no lack of possibility of recovery.

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