SunSirs: The Steel Market Is in a Haze, Can It Catch the Tail of October

List of steel price trends

Analysis review

Unbalanced supply and demand, with constant contradictions, the steel prices fell in the first half of the month. During the National Day holiday, the external market pulled up. On the first trading day after the festival, the thread and hot roll futures all rose sharply, driving the spot market to strengthen synchronously. However, with the insufficient performance of downstream demand, the steel price presented a trend of shock and decline.

From the perspective of the steel market after the festival, the demand for "Silver October" has not increased effectively. The repeated outbreaks after the festival once again hit the confidence of the steel market. During the meeting, epidemic prevention and control become stricter, which will continuously suppress the overall demand of the steel market. In addition, under the general environment, the macroeconomic downturn has led to pressure on demand.

From the perspective of supply, the efforts to control the atmosphere increased in autumn and winter, and the northern environmental protection and production restriction plan suppressed the supply increment. In addition, the price of raw materials is high, and steel production continues to lose money. Steel production is below the breakeven line, and profit suppresses output increment. During the National Day, the coke increased by 100-110 RMB/ton. In terms of supply, the profits of coking enterprises have been damaged recently, and the overall starting is low. Some enterprises take the initiative to limit production.

It is understood that the gross profit of hot rolled coil (3mm) is reduced by 111 RMB/ton, and the gross profit rate is reduced to 3.42%; The gross profit of cold-rolled sheet (1.0mm) is reduced by 30 RMB/ton, and the gross profit rate is reduced to 9.84%; The gross profit of deformed steel bar (20mm) decreased by 84 RMB/ton and the gross profit rate is reduced to 2.93%.

From the macro level, the news of national policies is warm, and the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) is held, so the internal macro stability is expected. Real estate sales showed signs of "weak recovery". Social finance data also improved significantly in September, helping to stabilize economic growth to a certain extent.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the weak demand in October will force steel mills to reduce production, and steel prices will be systematically adjusted to a certain extent. However, with the increase of macro uncertainties and the support of high costs, it is not necessary to be overly pessimistic. It is expected that steel prices will consolidate at a low level in the short term.

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