SunSirs: First Up and Then Down, Isobutyraldehyde Fell Sharply by 18.72% in September

Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the market price of isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell in September. The market price of isobutyraldehyde rose from 7,300.00 RMB/ton on September 1 to 8,133.33 RMB/ton on September 7, an increase of 11.42%. Later, it fell to 5,933.33 RMB/ton on September 30, down 27.05%, and a year-on-year drop of 61.72%.

On September 30, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 30.12, down 1.18 points from the previous day, hitting a new record low in the cycle, and down 71.47% from the peak of 105.58 points on September 16, 2021. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to now). From the weekly histogram of isobutyraldehyde, the overall isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell in September, with a maximum weekly decline of 7.41%.

Analysis review

From the manufacturer's quotation, the price of domestic mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose first and then fell in September, and the manufacturer's inventory was average. Lihua Yiyi's isobutyraldehyde quotation at the end of the month was 5,800 RMB/ton, down 1100 RMB/ton compared with the beginning of the month; The quotation of isobutyraldehyde produced by Luxi Chemical, which was distributed by Shandong Zhenkun, was 5,800 RMB/ton at the end of the month, which was 1,600 RMB/ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; The quotation of isobutyraldehyde of Hualu Hengsheng at the end of the month was 6,200 RMB/ton, which was 1,400 RMB/ton lower than that at the beginning of the month.

The upstream support was good, and the downstream demand was general

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of isobutyraldehyde, the upstream propylene market of isobutyraldehyde rose slightly in September. The price of propylene rose from 7,100.60 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 7,620.60 RMB/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.32% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.83%. The increase of upstream cost support had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

In September, the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream rose in a volatile manner. The price of neopentyl glycol rose from 9,966.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 10,066.67 RMB/ton at the end of the month, up 1.00%. The downstream market rose slightly, with a downward trend at the end of the month. Downstream manufacturers had general enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Market outlook

In mid October and early October, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate down slightly. Although the upstream propylene price rose slightly, the cost support improved. However, there was a downward trend in the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream. Downstream factories were less active in purchasing isobutyraldehyde, and the product trend was downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a slight shock and decline in the short term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

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