SunSirs: Up Nearly 20% in 20 Days, Nickel Price Re-Broke 200,000

Price trend

According to the price data monitoring of SunSirs, the nickel price soared to the highest price of more than 310,000 on March 9 this year, and then an epic reversal. The next day, it plummeted by 22% to 240,000. After that, it fell all the way to more than 160,000 on September 2, and then began to rebound slightly. It rebounded by nearly 20% in 19 days and broke through 200,000 again.

Multiple positive factors stimulated nickel prices to continue to strengthen

Weakening dollar boosted nickel prices

Since the Fed started the rate hike cycle this year, the US dollar index has soared, with the highest quotation hitting 110.271, a new high in nearly 20 years! After the sharp rise, the dollar has weakened in recent days, and nickel prices have been supported.

LME stockpiles at historic lows

On September 20, LME nickel inventory was 51,408 tons, a decrease of 294 tons from the previous day; in the last week, LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,056 tons, a decrease of 2.02%; in the last month, LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,450 tons, a decrease of 6.71%.

The recovery of downstream stainless steel demand was expected

With the arrival of "Golden September and Silver October", the stainless steel production schedule increased significantly in September, the demand for stainless steel was expected to increase, and prices rose. In the early stage, steel mills continued to reduce production and stainless steel transactions were hot. At present, there are few stainless steel available in the market. In addition, due to the long National Day holiday, stocking up before the holiday, stainless steel destocking is quicker, and overseas production has been reduced more, and hot-rolled exports have increased.

The rainy season in the Philippines is approaching, cost side has support

As the rainy season in the Philippines is approaching, ferronickel plants have begun to stock up, and mine offers are strong. Nickel ore prices are easy to rise and hard to fall, and cost support has emerged again. Therefore, supply and demand have supported nickel prices.

Market outlook

In general, the US dollar index continued to fluctuate, the expected increase in stainless steel demand in September and the continuous decline in LME nickel inventories all supported the rise in nickel prices. However, the Fed's interest rate decision will be held this week. The market believes that the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is high. At that time, the US dollar index may rise, which will put pressure on nickel prices. It is expected that the price of nickel will remain volatile and strong in the short term.

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