SunSirs: Nickel Prices Had Slightly Increased This Week (January 8-12)

Price trend

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, nickel prices had slightly increased this week. As of January 12th, the spot nickel quotation was 131,558.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.9% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 37.88%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, nickel prices had fallen for 9 weeks and risen for 3 weeks in the past 12 weeks. Recently, nickel prices had rebounded significantly.

Analysis review

On a macro level, the US CPI growth in December exceeded expectations and heated up, leading to a decrease in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in March and May, and a rebound in the US dollar index.

Supply side: According to the latest news from Indonesia, nickel mine RKAB had been affected by a series of issues, including environmental permits, national non tax revenue, and resource data. These issues had led to difficulties in submitting and approving work plans and budgets for PKAB. Under the new regulations of the mineral mining industry in 2024, these challenges may have a significant impact on mineral mining enterprises and relevant stakeholders. The short-term stabilization of nickel iron, nickel ore, and nickel sulfate prices still provided some support for the bottom of nickel prices.

In terms of demand, some downstream steel mills had reduced production and maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in stainless steel production in December. In addition, the pace of steel factory shipments had slowed down, and nickel iron in the raw material end had shown a stabilizing trend. The transaction price of steel mills had gradually moved up, laying the foundation for the stainless steel market. As of January 12th, steel mills still focused on shipments, and the steel market continued to follow the pace of destocking. At the end of the year, traders were releasing profits to recover funds, which provided some support for destocking. Downstream stocking was relatively optimistic.

Market outlook

In summary, nickel mining in Indonesia was facing challenges, with stable raw material prices supporting a rebound in the market. However, oversupply and accumulated inventory were suppressing, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels.

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