SunSirs: Energy, OPEC Prolongs Production Reduction Period, Crude Oil Price Rises

On November 26, WTI crude oil futures market rose to $58.41/ barrel, or $0.40, while Brent crude oil futures rose to $64.27/ barrel, or $0.62. The recent easing of international tensions will ultimately play a role in maintaining global economic growth and energy demand, while OPEC is also expected to continue to limit crude oil production, which ended higher.

First, TASS, citing three sources close to OPEC, said the group and key partners such as Russia are considering extending the agreement for three to six months, which currently expires in March 2020. Affected by the news, oil prices rose slightly.

In addition, U.S. crude oil inventory recorded an increase for five consecutive weeks (10 weeks in 11 weeks); oil prices rebounded again due to the improvement of trade situation and the possible extension of OPEC's production reduction agreement. Flynn, senior market analyst at price futures group, said there was a general consensus that the economic situation was improving. Tom finlon, director of energy Analytics Group, said oil prices should be supported by trade optimism and the possibility of OPEC + extending production reduction agreements and increasing utilization.

In addition, crude oil inventory data is also an important factor to support the oil price. At present, investors are still waiting for US crude oil inventory data, which is expected to decline. The American Petroleum Institute (API) released last week's crude oil inventory report later Tuesday, while the energy information agency (EIA) of the U.S. Department of energy will release the inventory report on Wednesday. According to S & P global Platts, analysts on average expect U.S. crude oil inventories to decline by 420,000 barrels and gasoline inventories to increase by 1.2 million barrels for the week ended on November 22.

In the view of SunSirs, the recent crude oil price has maintained a narrow range of strong shocks, and there are some favorable factors in the market in the short term, including the geopolitical influence of maintaining stability in Iran and Iraq, the increase of OPEC production reduction expectation, the decrease of pessimism in the inventory data of the United States, etc., which support the stronger operation of the oil price. However, in the medium and long term, many institutions predict that the downward pressure of the global economy is large, and the expectation of slowing down crude oil demand is still a lingering shadow of the market. With the slow improvement of the trade environment, the oil price will continue to be under pressure in the medium and long term.

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