SunSirs: China's Viscose Staple Fiber Continued to be Weak in May, Market Expectations were Weaker

As of May 27, 2021, the domestic average ex-factory price of 1.2D*38mm viscose staple fiber was 14420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 720 yuan/ton from the beginning of May, or 4.76%; and the price fell 1,440 yuan/ton from the beginning of April. , A decrease of 9.09%. Entering April, the viscose staple fiber market was weak, the market sentiment was weak, and factory inventories rose. Affected by the original cost of raw materials, manufacturers actively raised prices, and some factories implemented monthly settlements. There were basically no new orders, and inventory began to accumulate. Throughout April, although manufacturers actively raised prices, prices continued to fall slightly, and most manufacturers said they were currently in a state of no market. In May, manufacturers were under inventory pressure, and some manufacturers cut prices. After the holiday, prices fell all the way, transactions increased, and inventory pressure eased. Throughout May, the viscose staple fiber market continued to be weak, downstream yarns were unsalable, and spinning mills The inventory is high and the demand for viscose is limited.

According to the investigation, the price of viscose staple fiber increased from 8,300 yuan per ton in August last year to close to 16,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year. The price of viscose staple fiber has nearly doubled in more than half a year. Especially after the year, the price has soared all the way, from 12,900/ton in early February to 15,800/ton, an increase of 22.5%. However, since March, prices have gradually stabilized, and manufacturers' quotations have basically been around 16,000 yuan/ton. Since April, the market has been weak, transactions have been weak, and prices have continued to fall slightly. 1.2D*38mm viscose staple fiber has increased from RMB 15,840/ton at the beginning of April to RMB 15,140/ton at the end of April, and then to 14420 on May 27. Yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.09%.

It is reported that starting from early April, due to the tight supply of raw materials, a large high-end factory in the north has arranged for the production line to be overhauled in turn. Among them, the production of special spunlace non-woven fabrics has been reduced by 35%, and the production of textile fibers has been reduced by 20%. The viscose staple fiber market sentiment is weak, domestic demand is average, and exports are not optimistic. Trading of viscose filament yarns is weakening, factory inventories increase, and prices are loosened. The epidemic has a greater impact on exports to India. Market participants are pessimistic about the market outlook. After the May Day holiday, viscose staple fiber continues to be weak, downstream yarns are unsalable, spinning mills have high inventories, and the demand for viscose is limited. The factory carried out price-cutting promotions, the transaction volume increased, and the inventory pressure eased.

Upstream cotton linters and wood pulp market

Since April, the price of cotton linters has been supported by the cost, and the price has been rising, and the transaction volume has not been much. The price is still at a high level, but the market transaction performance is weak. The current price of Shandong long velvet is 4700-4800 yuan/ton. Entering May, the price of cotton linters continued to rise due to the increase in raw materials, and the transaction volume was relatively small. The price of Shandong long velvet was 5500-5600 yuan/ton.

After the May Day holiday, the spot price of wood pulp fell slightly, but then rebounded. On May 27, the average price of softwood pulp in Shandong area was 6,700 yuan/ton, which was lower than the average price of softwood pulp in Shandong area by 600 yuan at the beginning of the month (average price of softwood pulp on May 1 was 7312.5 yuan/ton). /Ton. The average price of hardwood pulp in Shandong area on May 7 was 5200 yuan/ton, which was reduced by 50 compared with the average price of hardwood pulp in Shandong area at the beginning of the month (average price of hardwood pulp on May 1 was 5250 yuan/ton). Yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%.

Downstream rayon yarn

The sales of yarn mills were poor, the volume and price of rayon yarn fell, and the factory inventory continued to increase. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of May 27, the average ex-factory price of rayon yarn (30S, ring spinning) in Shandong was 18,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 1,400 yuan/ton or 7.13% from the price in early April. The rayon yarn market in April failed to continue the stability of March, the price continued to fall, the market was weak, the transaction was thin, and some companies showed signs of profitability; entering May, the weak operation in April continued, and the market demand was weak and declining No change, the rayon yarn is weak. The willingness to purchase rayon and cotton downstream has declined, mostly due to the consumption of inventory. Market confidence is insufficient, buyers are not willing to purchase, and rayon yarn continues to be weakened.

Inventory of finished rayon yarn: In the first quarter of 2021, the number of rayon yarn ending inventory days reached 12.2 days, and the inventory is still increasing. The current inventory level has exceeded the level of the same period last year.

The operating rate of the rayon yarn industry: 85% at the end of the first quarter of rayon yarn, and the May 1st holiday in the second quarter. Under the premise of weak market demand and high upstream viscose staple fiber costs, the rayon yarn industry may start or decline passively.

Decrease in viscose staple fiber orders held by rayon yarn: Although the number of days for viscose staple fiber held by rayon yarn is higher than the same period last year, it has gradually declined. According to this rhythm, it is expected that the market will have viscose staple fiber around May 1st. Certain rigid stocking requirements.

Outlook forecast

In early May, the viscose staple fiber factory carried out price reduction promotions, the transaction volume was increased, and the inventory pressure was slightly slowed. In the case of high raw material prices and low downstream demand, it is expected that viscose staple fiber will operate weakly in the later period. Prices are easy to fall but hard to rise. The downstream rayon yarn market is weak and there is no demand for viscose staple fiber. Market participants are pessimistic. The trend of viscose staple fiber will continue to weaken, and bearish expectations remain unchanged.

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