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SunSirs: Low Demand, LNG Market Down Across the Board

April 19 2021 09:33:12     SunSirs (HU)

  1. Price Movements

According to the data monitored by the SunSirs: On April 15, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 3,390 RMB / ton, down 2.68% from the previous day, up 1.19% from the previous month, and up 4.2% from the same period last year.

  1. Analysis of Influencing Factors

On April 15, the domestic liquefied natural gas market was downgraded across the board, with a one-day drop of 2.68%, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and many other places collectively fell, the decline was mixed, the overall downward trend of the market is obvious, profit plummeting, hovering near the cost line, local upside down shipments. With the end of the heating period in the northern region, the market officially entered the off-season, the support force of the demand side gradually declined, the pre-maintenance and other favorable factors were exhausted, and the market weakness became a normal development. Recently, the price reduction of imported gas has been too large, which has suppressed the domestic market, there is pressure on the sales of domestic liquid plants, at the same time, the price of raw gas may be reduced in the latter half of the year, as well as approaching the May Day holiday, highway hazardous chemical vehicles will be restricted, most manufacturers continue to sell at a lower price, the attitude of the industry is negative. At present, the market supply is sufficient, the demand continues to be weak, the contradiction between supply and demand may increase, the liquid price is mainly low consolidation, there is still a decline expected, but due to stop the psychological loss, the space is not large.

On April 15, the whole domestic liquefied natural gas market was lowered. Inner Mongolia was down by 3,300-3500 RMB / ton, down by 70-150 RMB / ton, Shaanxi was down by 3320-3600 RMB / ton, down by 20-150 RMB / ton, Shanxi was down by 3350-3600 RMB / ton, down by 30-200 RMB / ton. Ningxia region 3,390-3,470 RMB / ton, down 40-110 RMB / ton, Henan region 3,550-3,660 RMB / ton, down 100 RMB / ton, Hebei region 3,120-3,150 RMB / ton, down 230-250 RMB / ton. Liquid prices in different places have decreased to varying degrees.

Region

Specifications

Quotation (RMB /ton)

Date

Inner Mongolia

LNG

3300-3500

April 15

Shaanxi

LNG

3320-3600

April 15

Shanxi

LNG

3350-3600

April 15

Ningxia

LNG

3390-3470

April 15

Hebei

LNG

3120-3150

April 15

Henan

LNG

3550-3660

April 15

Downstream products were mixed:

Methanol, on April 15, the ex-factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong increased, and the reference price of methanol was 2380.00, which was 0.11% higher than that on April 1 (2377.50). Due to low inventory and limited supply of goods available for sale, the prices of some manufacturers in the northwest have been constantly raised, while those in the inland areas have followed, but the price increase is moderate.

Urea, April 15, Shandong area urea market temporarily stable, urea reference price is 2113.33, compared with April 1 (2170.00), down 2.61%, the current agricultural demand procurement cautious, industrial demand with the use of urea supply is acceptable, short-term domestic urea market is expected to be dominated by small fluctuations.

Dichloromethane, on April 15, the reference price of Dichloromethane is 3870.00, compared with April 1 (3743.33), up 3.38%. At present, the pressure on the supply side is not large, coupled with the recent high price of raw material liquid chlorine, the cost side is more supportive, and there is support on the demand side. It is expected that the price of Dichloromethane will go up slightly in the later stage.

  1. Future Forecast

According to SunSirs LNG analysts: At present, affected by the off-season of consumption, the downstream demand has decreased, and the market transaction is general. Due to the low price of imported gas, the manufacturers are under great sales pressure, and continue to reduce the price of shipping operation, which has been hovering near the cost line. At the same time, the price of raw gas may be reduced in the latter half of the year, and the May Day holiday is approaching. Manufacturers are expected to cut prices and discharge inventories, and there are many negative factors. It is expected that the liquefied natural gas market will continue to decline in the short term, but the decline is limited.

 

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