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SunSirs: Adipic Acid Soared into the Sky, and the Price Broke Through the High Point in the Past Three Years

March 03 2021 13:12:06     SunSirs (John)

Market trend of adipic acid

After the Spring Festival, due to both the promotion of cost and the recovery of supply and demand, the domestic price of adipic acid began to increase. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the growth rate of adipic acid in East China was 12.59% throughout February. Entering March, in the first two working days, the price of adipic acid rose even more. From March 1-2, adipic acid increased at an unprecedented rate of 12.66%. The national market generally rose by more than 1,000 RMB/ton , and the price range was 10,500-11,000 RMB/ton .

From the perspective of market supply, large adipic acid factories temporarily overhauled, the operating rate declined, the market supply was relatively tight, and some East China dealers reported that they could not get the supply. At present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not great, mainly due to the continuous destocking of enterprises and the market before the Spring Festival. At present, social inventory is relatively reasonable. After the Spring Festival, dealers’ centralized replenishment has released pressure on the supply side and manufacturers’ prices have been frequently increased. The relatively tight supply environment is the important reason for the price increase of adipic acid.

Market trend of pure benzene

In terms of costs, the upstream crude oil prices continue to run at a high level after the holiday, and high oil prices provide cost support to the downstream chemical industry. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the upstream pure benzene has recently increased rapidly. From February 1 to March 2, pure benzene increased by 42.95 % (As shown in the figure above), the rapid rise in costs has led to a sharp rise in adipic acid, but in the past week, the pure benzene market has stabilized significantly and the growth rate has slowed down. It does not rule out the possibility of a decline in the cost support for adipic acid in the later period.

Market trend of PA66

In terms of downstream demand, terminal demand is generally picking up. After the Spring Festival, companies resume work in a timely manner. olyurethane and PA66 centralized procurement after the Spring Festival, the demand is strong, especially PA66, large factories are out of stock and raw materials. On February 23 alone, the PA66 of Pingdingshan Shenma, Huafeng Group and other factories showed a general increase of 2,000 RMB/ton . Up to now, according to business agency data, from February 1 to March 2, PA66 increased by 22.07%. Since last week, the increase of PA66 has slowed down, but the market has continued to run at a high level. It is expected that it will still bring some support to the adipic acid market in the near future.

In the later stage, SunSirs believes that adipic acid is currently at an unprecedented high, with fundamentals positive and traders' speculation. Some traders report relatively high prices and basically no transactions at high prices. There is currently a certain risk in the market. It is expected that in the near future, as the upstream crude oil retreats, pure benzene stops rising, and the downstream PA66 stabilizes, adipic acid may fail to rise, and the possibility of a fall from the high is not ruled out.

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