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SunSirs: The Overall Trend of N-butanol in 2020 Was Improving. The Market in the Fourth Quarter Was "Bright" and the Annual Increase Was 61%-Part 2

January 05 2021 13:35:25     SunSirs (John)

In the second half of 2020, n-butanol welcomed the highest price of the year, and the market offer exceeded 10,000 RMB/ton

In the second half of 2020, the overall market trend of n-butanol in July and August in the second half of 2020 was general, basically maintaining the high price in the first half of the year. The n-butanol market rose steadily in September and October, and the n-butanol market was highlighted in the two months at the end of the year. The n-butanol market rose sharply in November and December.

In July, the domestic market for n-butanol fell overall due to the increase in supply in the short term due to the delay of some factory overhauls and the low downstream purchasing sentiment. In August, the n-butanol market began to rebound steadily under the support of rising raw materials and low inventories. In late August, affected by the weakening of downstream demand, the n-butanol market rose weakly and remained stable. On August 31, the average ex-factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5,700 RMB/ton. In September, Golden September arrived, and the domestic n-butanol market rose steadily. The high level of raw materials supported n-butanol market. The downstream replenishment was good, the market transaction atmosphere improved, and the supply pressure was less. Driven by multiple benefits, the focus of n-butanol transactions continued to move upward. In late September, boosted by pre-holiday stocking and tight supply, the mainstream price of n-butanol continued to rise. On September 30, the reference average price of n-butanol was 6,333 RMB/ton, a monthly increase of 11.11%, and a 5.56% increase in the third quarter.

After the National Day in October, the n-butanol market continued its upward trend in September, and the market was high and stable, and the transaction center steadily moved closer to the high end again. The factory spot was tight, the downstream just needed replenishment, and the market transactions were normal. At the end of the month, due to the negative decline of downstream propylbutyl ester products and the sharp decline in the price of raw material propylene, orders for n-butanol decreased, and the price declined slightly. The market was still rising mainly overall October, as of October 31, the average reference price of n-butanol was 6,583 RMB/ton, a monthly increase of 3.95%.

In November, the market for n-butanol soared by 38.23%

In early November, the domestic market for n-butanol was stable. Beginning on the 9th and 10th, downstream users of butyl ester entered the market one after another to replenish goods. The spot supply of n-butanol was tight. The quotation of n-butanol factories began to increase, and the market for n-butanol entered a wide upward channel. As of the 30th, the average ex-factory price of domestic n-butanol refered to 9,100 RMB/ton. Compared with November 1, the average price was raised by 2,517 RMB/ton, a monthly increase of 38.23%.

In December, the price of n-butanol broke the highest level in the year and exceeded 10,000 RMB/ton

Beginning on December 3 and 4, under high prices, downstream demand weakened, and the market for n-butanol fluctuated downward. Beginning in late December, due to the emergency maintenance and shutdown of foreign n-butanol production plants, the export of n-butanol increased, demand increased, n-butanol stopped falling and rebounded, the market continued to rise, the purchasing atmosphere was good and the spot was tight. As of December 21, the average ex-factory price of n-butanol rose to 10,016 RMB/ton, a new high during the year. The high price continued for a week. Near the end of the month, due to the weakening of downstream demand, the transaction was not smooth, and the market price of n-butanol showed a rapid downward trend. The range was 300-500 RMB/ton. As of December 30, the domestic reference average price of n-butanol was 9,300 RMB/ton, a monthly increase of 2.93%, a 47.89% increase in the fourth quarter, and an annual increase of 60.57%.

Domestic Butanol Market Outlook Forecast

With the approach of New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, the downstream replenishment of n-butanol has been started one after another. With increasing demand, it is expected that the price of n-butanol plants will stop falling and stabilize in the short term. The market's center of gravity will mostly maintain stable operation before the Spring Festival, with limited upward and downward adjustments.

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